Thai food and grain exporters are being advised to monitor market trends in China closely and to explore new markets, as China is seeking to reduce its dependence on imports of food and grain, particularly rice and sugar, and to increase its exports, according to Nantapong Chiralerspong, director general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO).
Citing the ‘China Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035’, he said that, in 2025, the Chinese agricultural sector continued to grow, with combined cereal output reaching the unprecedented level of 715 million tonnes, while meat production exceeded 100 million tonnes for the first time. The nation also saw a decline in imports of maize and wheat, which registered a drop of 80.6% and 64.4% respectively, reflecting China’s food security strategy to reduce its dependence on imports.
Although exports of Thai rice and sugar to the Chinese market is at risk of shrinking, Nantapong said that Thai fruits still have bright prospects in China, but Thai fruit growers must pay more attention to improving the quality of their products to meet the requirement of Chinese consumers.
China’s imports of fruits are expected to grow by an average of 6.1% annually, to about 369 million tonnes in 2035, while consumption is expected to increase by an average of 1.2%, he said.
China’s imports of meat are expected to grow by an average of 2.4% per year and to reach about 1.27 million tonnes of chicken by year 2035, while imports of seafood are expected to increase by 1.6% annually, reaching 8.08 million tonnes in 2035.
As far as rice and sugar are concerned, Nantapong said China’s imports of rice are anticipated to drop by 9.01% per annum to only 0.95 million tonnes in 2035, while its rice exports are likely to increase, posing a direct threat to Thai rice exports already facing fierce competition in global markets.
He projected that, in the next decade, Chinese consumers will steadily shift to premium imported products, in line with the increase in per capita income, averaging 4.3% growth per year in urban areas and a 7.5% increase in the urban population within 2035.
