After former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra returned to face prison following 15 years of self-exile and managed to spend the last four months in hospital, many people are wondering if his sister Yingluck is set to follow suit.

Thaksin, the patriarch of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, has not spent a single day in prison after being sent to the Police General Hospital following his arrest at Don Mueang Airport in August. His prison terms were also reduced by royal pardon from eight years to one.

Critics say he is benefiting from the fact that his proxy party is now governing the country in a coalition with the old military-backed conservative power clique.

They are now wondering whether Thaksin will attempt to facilitate the return of Yingluck – who also faces arrest in Thailand – while Pheu Thai is still in power.

Window of opportunity

Political analysts say a window of opportunity has opened for both Thaksin and Yingluck, as the conservative Thai elite has dropped its opposition to their return.

The elitist establishment is reliant on Thaksin and Pheu Thai to prevent the reformist Move Forward Party from taking power, analysts say.

But a recent move by Move Forward mentor Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit threatens to undermine the establishment’s plan and derail hopes for Thaksin’s early release and Yingluck’s return, they add.

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, says the Thai establishment is now dependent on Thaksin for its grip on power after its parties performed poorly in last year’s elections.

This reliance will likely force it to accept Thaksin’s ultimatum that his sister be handed the same leniency that he has enjoyed. However, Thanathorn may be leveraging his connection with Thaksin to drive a wedge between the elites and Pheu Thai, Olarn said. In November, Thanathorn remarked that Pheu Thai was his “true friend” and that a future Thailand needed both Move Forward and Pheu Thai.

“Thanathorn’s remark that Move Forward is Pheu Thai’s friend was like a stab in the back for Thaksin. If Pheu Thai ends up working with Move Forward in a future government as Thanathorn expects, the old power clique will be in trouble,” said the analyst.

“If Yingluck comes back and Pheu Thai partners with Move Forward, the old elite status quo will be destabilized.”

Confusing signals

Olarn said this possibility worries the Thai elite, which explains the confusing signals over Thaksin’s early release. Earlier rumors suggested that the ex-premier would receive a royal amnesty and be free by January or February this year.

However, amid growing public discontent over his alleged “VIP treatment”, authorities including the Department of Corrections have been vague over their responsibilities now that Thaksin has exceeded the 120 days that convicts are permitted to receive medical treatment outside prison.

Olarn warned that the relevant authorities could face criminal charges of dereliction of duty for their inaction.

The analyst believes that Thaksin could shore up support from the old power clique by promising not to ally with Move Forward.

“To get the green light for his sister [Yingluck] to come back, Thaksin needs to reassure the elites that he will not betray them by siding with Move Forward,” he said.

‘Political hostage’

Olarn said he expected Thaksin to raise the ante in this game with Thanathorn and the elitist establishment.

To dispel the distrust sparked by Thanathorn, Thaksin may need to offer his daughter Paetongtarn as a “political hostage” by ensuring she becomes the next prime minister.

The analyst reckoned this would give the elites peace of mind, based on the assumption that Thaksin would not allow his daughter to become a political target or get into trouble with the law.

Olarn said Pheu Thai’s current prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, is widely viewed as a puppet and could easily be replaced on the pretext that he failed to pass a key government policy and must shoulder the responsibility.

Paetongtarn has served as Pheu Thai leader since late October but does not hold a seat in Cabinet. The 37-year-old political novice is one of Pheu Thai’s three prime ministerial candidates, but the party opted to nominate Srettha as the country’s 30th premier in the parliamentary vote last August.

Media reports at that time said that Paetongtarn’s mother, Khunying Potjaman Na Pombejra, was worried it was too early for Paetongtarn to become prime minister.

Cases against Yingluck

Like Thaksin, Yingluck faces multiple criminal cases stemming from her tenure as prime minister, which lasted from August 2011 to May 2014.

The country’s first female leader was found guilty of negligence that led to corruption in her government’s rice-pledging scheme. In September 2017, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions sentenced Yingluck in absentia to five years in prison. She had fled the country a month earlier and failed to show up for the verdict.

A piece of good news for Yingluck came on December 26 when the same court acquitted her of malfeasance in the 2011 transfer of National Security Council secretary-general Thawil Pliensri, who had sued over the move.

The court ruled that Yingluck had no “special intention” of causing damage and that it was a normal transfer rather than being part of a plot to help her relative become chief of Royal Thai Police, as alleged.

Some analysts view that since Yingluck now faces no other prison terms, it should be easy for her to return to Thailand soon under similar conditions enjoyed by Thaksin.

However, Yingluck still faces one case in the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions. In January 2022, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) filed a lawsuit against her and five other defendants over alleged corruption in the Thailand 2020 Roadshow project.

The lawsuit alleged that Yingluck and the other defendants caused damages to the country worth about 240 million baht by awarding the project to publicize infrastructure projects to two Thai publications without inviting bids.

The NACC is also dealing with other complaints against Yingluck, though none has reached court yet.

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk