June 30, 2023: Have they or have they not? News and rumours about Move Forward and Pheu Thai having reached _ or still trying to find _ a compromise over their House speakership conflict are reaching a fever pitch, with media outlets scrambling desperately to seek a clear-cut confirmation or absolute denial.

Conflicting information coincides with the drastically-narrowing breathing space. A House of Representatives meeting to conclude the thorny issue of who will chair the chamber has been scheduled for July 4. If both parties have settled their differences as certain reports suggest, it will not have to go to a voting contest, which could significantly damage their already-questionable alliance, make many people lose faces and intensify all kinds of speculation. Due to earlier comments by Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, it had been understood that the first House of Representatives session would be several more days away, giving both parties ample time to find an amicable solution which would make the vote to elect the prime minister a straightforward affair of MPs versus senators.

Now, to those questioning the compromise-has-been-reached story, a shorter timeframe means less time to negotiate, and confrontation will not be pretty. This camp believes that if nothing concrete and friendly comes out of the last meeting of the Pita alliance before July 4, the climax (prime ministerial selection) can be explosive.

And we haven’t talked about Thaksin Shinawatra yet.

June 29, 2023: Forming a government was more difficult in the past, so the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties must learn to compromise in order to go ahead together, according to a man with all the relevant experiences.

Chuan Leekpai, who used to serve as prime minister, Democrat leader and Parliament president, said that a party seeking to form a government in the past had to worry about six or seven other parties, while Move Forward only has Pheu Thai to think about.

“Now, (Move Forward and Pheu Thai alone) can form the majority in the House of Representatives,” Chuan said. He seemed to emphasise the fact that both parties are on the same ideological side, unlike past situations where the biggest party and the first runner-up were deemed absolute rivals, needing to take other parties under their wings.

Chuan did not mention the Senate’s provisional powers, but his apparent point was that if Move Forward and Pheu Thai are firmly together, nothing can harm their aspiration to serve as a government.

Chuan admitted that the biggest party traditionally gets the House speakership, but, he said: “When you want everything, problems will keep on coming.”

He pointed out that the House speakership did not necessarily go to the biggest party in the past because parties could reach a compromise, even under circumstances that were less straightforward.

June 28, 2023: Move Forward wouldn’t want the issue causing friction between it and the Pheu Thai Party to go to a parliamentary vote, not least because such an exercise could expose vulnerability that has been suppressed by post-election euphoria.

As of now, midday of June 28, it appears that both parties are not getting any closer on who should chair the House of Representatives, the biggest parliamentary position who could influence prioritisation of proposed laws. As we know, Move Forward has a major legal agenda and thus it wants a trusted person to do the job. Pheu Thai, meanwhile, is hell-bent on getting the position along with 14 Cabinet seats.

Parties in the current, out-going government could manoeuvre to weaken the Pita alliance by supporting a Pheu Thai nominee. This could isolate Move Forward and show it a glimpse of what might come next legislatively if its alliance with Pheu Thai continues to be like this.

Good news for Move Forward is that it still has plenty of time to cut a deal with Pheu Thai before the new House speaker has to be appointed late next month. Such a deal, however, would have to be good face-saving, or it might be perceived as the party being held to ransom by Pheu Thai even before the new government is born.

June 27, 2023: Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate Srettha Thavisin has given a strong indication that his party would not support an idea that is being floated to change the national day from December 5 to June 24.

“People voted for us to serve them, not cause divisiveness,” said Srettha in a brief but hard-hitting dismissal of the proposal. It was understood that some people in the Move Forward Party favoured the idea, and while it is just being whispered about at the moment, it can make the biggest political camp’s plan to amend Article 112 appear more controversial.

“It’s better to use our time to think about how to make Thais’ lives better,” Srettha said.

Both December 5 and June 24 are significant. The former is the birthday of late King Rama 9, and the latter marks the change of Thailand’s political system from absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy. Actually, June 24 was Thailand’s national day until 1960, after which the national day was changed to December 5.

Move Forward is viewing the simmering “national day controversy” as part of a plan to discredit its leader and top prime ministerial candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat. Debate on the national day, in fact, has been going on for years, the party said.

June 26, 2023: Pornpetch Wichitcholchai has said what he has to say, and nothing that Thais want to know.

The Senate speaker said his chamber wanted “a good man” as the prime minister and would not vote for, or reject, anyone “en bloc”. In other words, every senator would make his or her own decision.

It’s a textbook answer to a question that everyone wants to ask: Will the Senate support the leader of the political party that won the May 14 election?

He did say something that might openly concern Pita Limjaroenrat, though. Pornpetch said that as far as he knew, no political party had lobbied the Senate, wholly or individually. This somehow contradicts what deputy Move Forward leader Sirikanya Tansakul said the other day. According to her, the party is “very close” to the 376 votes it needs for Pita, with breakaway senators pledging the crucial support.

She even suggested that a few more senators would be lobbied, as a precaution against “currently-defecting” senators changing their minds.

“I don’t think there will be unusual chaos when Parliament votes to elect the prime minister,” said Pornpetch. “Debate will be heated, of course, but that will be normal. I expect a lot of questions on backgrounds and so on but it will be the duty of the House speaker to ensure the process is smooth.”

That brings us to an unsettled and potentially fiery issue of the House speakership. Just before the prime ministerial selection, the House of Representatives will need to decide who will chair it, and, as of today, the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties are still miles apart on that.

Rogue activist Jatuporn Prompan has said that something remarkable was spotted when Suchart Tancharoen, the Pheu Thai candidate for the House speakership, went to Parliament a couple of days ago to register himself as a new MP.

Suchart, Jatuporn said, sneaked in and out after office hours with an obvious intention to avoid reporters. Such a stealthy move was indicative of the cooking of a big plan, said Jatuporn, who wouldn’t rule out Suchart pipping a Move Forward candidate, in the process facilitating an unlikely rise to power of Prawit Wongsuwan and sparking a major demonstration by Pita’s supporters.

June 25, 2023: Either Russian troops are incredibly and incomparably weak, or Wagner forces  had the help of the Avengers.

What happened in one day in Russia over this weekend raises a serious question: Never mind what took place afterwards, but are we to believe that in just a matter of hours, a paramilitary group consisting of just over 20,000 mercenaries could mock and tease an army of over a million soldiers backed up by a couple more million reserves, breeze through the Russian border, seize a command station with ease, recruit defectors on their way, assemble a transport convoy that apparently included military vehicles which it was not supposed to own and rolled unstopped toward Moscow, and come within a couple of hundreds of kilometres of the Russian capital, making some national bosses act like schoolboys during fire alarms in the process?

When you ponder the question, keep in mind that Ukraine has, without a fuss, subdued Wagner for way over a year during which the rogue group’s soldiers, in the words of their supreme commander himself, had to fight for their lives, let alone thinking about riding to Kyiv thumping their chests.

June 24, 2023: Ignorance of repeated safety warnings and belittling of those sounding the alarms might have allegedly taken place before the “catastrophic implosion” of the Titan submersible.

BBC’s jaw-dropping story had one of the five victims, OceanGate CEO Stockton Rush, in focus. His alleged dismissiveness was compared to when the Titanic was thought to be unsinkable before she met her doom.

The BBC alleged that warnings over the safety of OceanGate’s Titan submersible were repeatedly dismissed by Rush. The network said it saw email messages that showed Rush, rather impolitely, downplaying warnings by a leading deep sea exploration specialist. Rob McCallum had reportedly told Rush he was potentially putting his clients at risk and urged him to stop using the sub until it had been certified by an independent agency.

“We have heard the baseless cries of ‘you are going to kill someone’ way too often,” Rush allegedly wrote. “I take this as a serious personal insult.”

“Until a sub is classed, tested and proven it should not be used for commercial deep dive operations,” McCallum allegedly wrote in one email. “I implore you to take every care in your testing and sea trials and to be very, very conservative,” he reportedly added. “As much as I appreciate entrepreneurship and innovation, you are potentially putting an entire industry at risk.”

In his alleged response a few days later, Rush reportedly defended his business and his credentials. BBC quoted him as saying OceanGate’s “engineering focused, innovative approach… flies in the face of the submersible orthodoxy, but that is the nature of innovation”.

BBC’s allegations were explosive, obviously, as the Titan passengers were rich with families, friends or colleagues capable of launching mega lawsuits demanding heavy damages.

June 23, 2023: If Pheu Thai wants a compromise, it’s picked a wrong man. If it does not, it’s unleashed the right one.

On Thursday at Parliament, Chalerm Yoobamrung made Adisorn Piengket (both from the same party) sound like an enthusiastic peace advocate. The former attacked the new generation, insisted that the House speaker must serve all, not just one party, and suggested that he was struggling to see Pita Limjaroenrat as a prospective prime minister.

Here’s his comment on the new generation versus the old one: “I have been in politics for 40 years. I like Parliament, and I like parliamentary debate. But politics nowadays is strange. Some people said the old generation is like expired drugs, so it has to be the new generation only. What if some among the older generation are smarter than some in the new one? We need a good blend, not contempt. Everyone is patriotic and wants to see good things for the country so it’s not politics if someone gets torn to pieces if he or she said something the majority does not like. This is not (good) politics.”

On whether Pita is suitable for the premiership, the senior Pheu Thai MP who has served the party across the administrative spectrum said: “How can I see someone from another party taking the position? To me, the prime minister must come from Pheu Thai. It’s not Chalerm if I said I see Pita more appropriate than a Pheu Thai candidate. I’m not afraid of scolders visiting me on tour buses for saying so. What’s the deal with the new generation? What’s the problem with the old generation? Knowledge is more important than age.”

On the House speakership tussle: “The House speaker needs to be perfectly neutral. He must serve all, not just one party. I will respect whatever decision made by my party. If it doesn’t agree (with Move Forward), I won’t agree (with Move Forward). If it agrees, I won’t go against that decision. No government formation is easy. This is just the beginning. Relax. I know young people want to do it quickly, but old people can think as well.”

June 22, 2023: Such things as the speakership tussle is normal in democracy, said Pheu Thai’s Adisorn Piengket, but he hinted that it wouldn’t be pretty if the issue has to be decided by a parliamentary vote.

Adisorn claimed that almost all Pheu Thai MPs felt strongly that the party deserved the top parliamentary position, although he suggested there remained time to settle the dispute without having to resort to a parliamentary showdown. Such a vote, after all, will be perceived as ominous because the two parties have not even started working together.

Pheu Thai had had a meeting of its MPs and “almost 100 per cent of them” thought the party deserved the speakership, he said. “We would inform Move Forward of that. (We) don’t want the speakership matter to disrupt the progress of (our) coalition government, which is getting closer to reality,” Adisorn stressed. “I’m praying that negotiations would end soon. (But) whoever is negotiating for Pheu Thai will also have to take into account how the majority of our MPs feel.”

He said strong remarks coming out of the Pheu Thai camp were “normal” in democracy. “Strong language is our flower,” the man insisted.

Adisorn’s comment mirrored what deputy Pheu Thai leader Phumtham Wechayachai said the other day. Some may consider it to be a compromise or a face-saving retreat. Others see a polite warning.

To sum it up, Pheu Thai may grudgingly accept whatever it finally gets, but Move Forward has been given a clear “Don’t push us” message.

June 21, 2023: How do _ or should _ we value a human life?  The answer is we definitely have no idea.

The race against time to rescue five people on board a submersible that went missing on a trip to view the Titanic wreckage flies in the face of many things that has been, and will be, going on in this world.

Drug companies, and probably governments, got a lot of money selling COVID-19 vaccines at the height of the pandemic that was frightening everyone to death whereas free distribution and injection could have saved countless lives and eased suffocating fears of billions. Invasions killed. “Liberations” killed. Political uprisings killed. Even “cold wars” can have deadly consequences somewhere and somehow.

The Titanic rescue story is uplifting, but only because it’s an exception. It’s inspirational because we are more used to seeing killers, not rescuers.

If only human resources, wealth, tools, expertise, technology, knowledge, wisdom and noble spirit had been mobilized the same way as when people are trapped underwater, in flooded caves or collapsed mines.

June 20, 2023: The biggest political party is confident of enough senatorial assistance to nudge it past the 376-vote finish line and thus install Pita Limjaroenrat as the new prime minister.

According to deputy Move Forward leader Sirikanya Tansakul, the party is “very close” to the 376 votes it needs, with breakaway senators providing the crucial support.

“We are quite satisfied with the progress,” she said.

Move Forward, she said, will seek a few more senatorial votes beyond the majority mark “to make it sure” and to cushion the possibility of some supportive senators changing their minds later.

The current Move Forward-led alliance cannot get past the 376-vote finishing line on its own, but with the Pheu Thai Party staying in the group, there is no rival attempt to form a government, or so it seems. However, Move Forward and Pheu Thai remain unable to see eye to eye over the speakership issue. Their tussle may have to be settled through a parliamentary voting, which does not guarantee a Move Forward victory.

Sirikanya, a strong candidate for the finance portfolio, said she hoped both parties could reach an agreement on the speakership so it didn’t have to come to competitive voting. “But Parliament has the right to call a vote if it has to come to that,” she said.

June 19, 2023: The latest statement from the second biggest party can be either a white flag or continued show of defiance, depending on how you see it.

Maybe Phumtham Wechayachai, one of Pheu Thai’s biggest guns, intended for his remark to be ambiguous like that. On the one hand, he conceded that the biggest party, Move Forward unofficially, was traditionally entitled to the position. On the other hand, he also said election results are not official yet and Move Forward and Pheu Thai “are not that far apart” when the numbers of seats are concerned.

It was a statement strewn with humility, respect and yet reminders that Move Forward should consider itself lucky to have a powerful ally like Pheu Thai.

“What always traditionally happened was that the second biggest party would present itself as a rival government-forming core, but the Pheu Thai Party does not do that, because we know the Thai people want changes,” the deputy Pheu Thai leader said.

He followed that up with calls for amicability and respect, especially when official results are yet to be announced by the Election Commission.

Conflict, he said, was happening because both parties were not that far apart in terms of parliamentary seats. “Therefore, it has been tentatively agreed that both parties should have equal numbers of Cabinet portfolios and while Move Forward will get the chief executive position, the chief legislative position should go to Pheu Thai,” Phumtham said. Having said that, he admitted political tradition gave the speakership to the biggest party.

According to Phumtham, however, reports that Pheu Thai had decided to give up on the legislative post was premature.

Overall, it’s unclear what he meant. He could be saying that Pheu Thai would give up once official results confirms Move Forward as the biggest party, or he could be suggesting that the narrow gap between Move Forward and Pheu Thai and the fact that Pheu Thai agreed not to lead a rival government-forming core require a break with tradition.

June 18, 2023: Unless the White House comes up with a better explanation, accumulating jokes about Joe Biden’s “God save the queen” at the end of a speech over the weekend might turn into serious doubts about his presidential efficacy, especially if given the second term.

Netizens all over the world are having a heyday following what looked like Biden’s latest public slip of the tongue. Many twitter memes featured photos or clips of the dragon queen in the Game of Thrones, with captions saying he must be thinking about her. Other net surfers asked which queen Biden was actually talking about. Tongue-in-cheek demands for Washington’s “apology” to the entire United States and the rest of the globe were everywhere.

Said one twitter user: “The point is not which queen he was referring to. The point is who said it.” Another one agreed, saying “It wouldn’t matter if he was not the American president.”

To be fair, 80-year-old Biden could be meaning to joke with a perceived Briton in the crowd. The president gave a speech on Friday at the National Safer Communities Summit in West Hartford, Connecticut, discussing the necessity of increased gun safety legislation.

At the end of his speech, the president remarked that he could not shake hands with people in the audience due to an incoming storm.

“All right?  God Save the Queen, man,” he said, wrapping up his speech but kicking up a social media hurricane. The White House press officer said later it was apparent that Biden was speaking to someone in the crowd. That could not prevent the clip of that particular moment from going viral online or stop many news websites from reporting about the incident, though.

And if Biden was really joking and talking about England, at least his UK humour should have been updated.

Many comments on YouTube mentioned that Queen Elizabeth II passed away last year.

But one of the wittiest remarks has to be“God save America sounds more proper me think.”

Yet the best line which took the cake was apparently in Biden’s speech itself. “Remember who we are. We are the United States of America,” he said just a few sentences before “God save the Queen”.

On the bright side, fewer people are talking about the Republicans’ Burisma bribery claims now.

June 17, 2023: The iTV controversy may be giving the Senate a “good excuse” to vote for somebody else as prime minister, and Pita Limjaroenrat’s possible failure to gather at least 376 MPs and senators to back him could resuscitate the second-biggest party, according to analysts.

Without the iTV issue it would be a lot harder for the Senate to turn against the man who is leading the most popular party. Now, conservative skepticism battling Move Forward is being compounded by legal and constitutional uncertainties facing Pita. Also, the fact that Pita is the only prime ministerial nominee of Move Forward is not helping the biggest party.

This means Pheu Thai, still nursing a heartbreak over a landslide that never came, still stands a slim chance. In fact, if it cuts a deal with Palang Pracharath, Prawit Wongsuwan cannot be ruled out either.

“All Pheu Thai needs to do is to act like Pita’s good gentleman friend, offering sympathy, support and commitment on the surface, while getting ready if or when the windfall arrives,” according to a news analysis which was accompanied by a picture of Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

Her father, Thaksin, in making people frown with a curious plan to return to Thailand in July, might be onto something.

June 16, 2023: The Election Commission is non-committal on whether it will complete its task regarding the Pita controversy before Parliament elects the new prime minister in August.

The Pita-iTV issue is expected to last for months and go beyond the realm of the EC’s responsibility and authority, but the agency appears ready to quicken its own process so Parliament can at least elect the new government leader without so many complications.

Despite its half-hearted promise to be quick, though, the EC has stopped short of giving a guarantee that its part of the job will be finished in time for Parliament’s vote to select the new prime minister. In other words, when the Senate and House of Representatives convene a joint session for the crucial vote in early August, some answers expected from the EC might remain elusive.

“This is a justice process,” said EC chairman Itthiporn Boonprakong. “And like every justice process, injustice might happen if we try to rush things too much.”

He said investigation into cases like Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s normally took 20 days, extendable by 15 days per each extension. Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said Parliament could vote to elect the new prime minister on August 3, and that schedule, assuming some EC investigative work has begun already, gives the EC an extremely tight space.

June 15, 2023: If former US president Donald Trump paid for a cover-up and mishandled highly-classified state documents, sitting US president Joe Biden once received massive business bribes, according to American politics.

Political rivals in the United States are taking turn in hurling damaging charges against the top man of the other side. Just days after Trump was indicted for the second time and became the first former president to face federal charges, the Republicans have come up with what might soon be known as the “Burisma-gate”, an explosive bribery story.

UK-based DailyMail.com has reported that Biden was referred to as the ‘Big Guy’ by a Burisma executive who allegedly paid him a $5 million bribe and who has kept 17 audio recordings of phone calls as an “insurance policy”.

The story involved  a ‘highly credible’ whistleblower, an internal memo created in 2020, a highly-paid FBI informant and, of course, the recorded phone talks. It has to do with a $5 million ‘arrangement’ for an exchange of money for policy decisions between then-vice president Biden and a foreign national.

A source told DailyMail.com that the foreign national – an executive from Ukrainian gas company Burisma Holdings Limited – referred to Joe Biden as the ‘Big Guy’.

Currently, the American Democrats remain calm, downplaying the allegations against the current president as “thin”. Even neutral observers also find it hard to believe. Among key questions: If bribery did take place, a politician of Biden’s calibre wouldn’t be so careless in phone conversations, would he? If he did the talking himself, that is.

June 14, 2023: Thailand’s political timeline means Thaksin Shinawatra has picked a bad time for his plan to return to the country.

According to Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, Parliament would vote to elect the new prime minister on August 3. Thaksin is determined to end his exile and come home in July according to his daughter Paetongtarn and the man himself.

If those things go as planned, Thaksin would touch down on one of the Prayut government’s last days. It will be extremely awkward for all _ Prayut Chan-o-cha, anyone who is the prospective new prime minister, the police, prison officials, heads of related ministries as well as every political party including Pheu Thai. Pita Limjaroenrat, of course, will be bombarded by reporters, most likely more than Prayut.

Speculation that Thaksin would again make a U-turn is increasing, drummed up by his former leading warrior Jatuporn Prompan. Paetongtarn, in her latest comments on the issue, said her father was still hell-bent on coming back in July, but she admitted that she expected many circumstances to be taken into account. Thaksin himself said he was not changing his mind.

Wissanu said Parliament is scheduled to elect a new speaker on July 25 and that will be followed by a joint Senate-House of Representatives session on August 3 to name the new prime minister, and the line-up for the new Cabinet should be formally announced on August 10, and the swearing-in ceremony will be on August 11.

June 13, 2023: To applause and ringing praises, America has announced it would rejoin the UN’s cultural and scientific agency, UNESCO, but the development is far more political than cultural or scientific.

It is no secret that the decision to return was motivated by concern that Beijing is filling the gap left by Washington’s departure. According to The Guardian, US officials have admitted that there is growing concern about China’s influences in UNESCO policymaking, notably in setting standards for artificial intelligence and technology education around the globe.

The US and Israel broke ranks in terms of funding after UNESCO voted to include Palestine as a member state in 2011. The Trump administration cut ties completely in 2017, citing bias against Israel and management problems.

Simply put, the US left UNESCO because of international politics, and it is returning to the agency because of international politics.

But as America needs to counter-balance China in UNESCO, the agency reportedly wants the US dollars. The Guardian said there was applause in the UNESCO auditorium as the agency’s top official announced the plan to ambassadors at a special meeting on Monday, and many delegates stood up to welcome the news – and the new influx of money. Voting to formalise the return should be very smooth.

June 12, 2023: Who said and wrote what, when and where as well as how what was said or written can be interpreted by the public, media, legal experts and judges will decide the political future of a highly-popular politician.

It will be a hair-splitting exercise for all. Did iTV stop being a media organisation the day Pita Limjaroenrat applied for election candidacy? What were shareholders actually told or what did they assume? Does that even matter, as everyone knew that the registered purpose of iTV was that it would do a media business? Why did iTV continue to exist then without doing the media business? Did it continue to exist beyond the days of its media business largely because it needed to fight legally with the government?

Does the continued existence mean any now-defunct operation can be resuscitated any time, particular if it wins the legal battle? Will that be a factor for the judges? Where is the source of money now? Does the income come from those who registered iTV as a media operator? If so, how much weight should be given to what he, or she, or they, will tell the public from now on? Does iTV need a new media license if it wants to, say, produce and sell a documentary?

It will be quite a ride for all.

June 11, 2023: Manchester United fans living in Manchester now surely want to leave town during the trophy parade, which certainly will turn the city blue and make Sir Alex Ferguson’s “Noisy neighbour” remark a lot more ridiculous than it ever sounded.

But for anyone related to football residing outside Manchester, they will have to live with another biting reality. Here’s a football team facing more than 100 financial fair-play charges that are taking forever to conclude. Manchester City’s historic “treble” achieved on Saturday after the team beat Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League final underlines once again the importance of obscene money in the world of competitive club football.

UEFA had intended to ban Manchester City from the competition, citing financial irregularities, yet the move failed and the team went on to win this year’s title, beating football giants Bayern Munich and Real Madrid along the way. England’s Football Association followed up on it and announced financial fair-play charges against City months ago, but the team again shrugged it off and won the Premier League and FA Cup with ease.

Critics are saying that without the power of Manchester City’s money, the club would have been harshly punished a long time ago, either through bans, relegation, point deduction or all of them. The club always insisted on its “innocence” and vehemently countered charges that it did not fully cooperate in on-going investigation.

Yet to make it harder for Manchester United fans, Manchester City only came second after their team in the list of biggest net spend over the last decade. During the period, Manchester United’s net spend was 1.1 billion pounds, followed by Manchester City’s 985 million pounds. The much-taunted Paris Saint Germain of Frace came third at 940 million pounds. Fourth, fifth and sixth were Spain’s Barcelona (650 million pounds), England’s Arsenal (583 million pounds) and Italy’s Juventus (560 million pounds) respectively. Making up the top ten respectively were AC Milan of Italy, and three teams from England including Everton, Aston Villa and Chelsea.

There are other rich teams spending heavily over the past decade as well but they are better at balancing sales and purchases of players.

June 10, 2023: Opinions have been divided today on whether the Election Commission’s decisions regarding the Move Forward leader is positive or negative for him, making celebrations cautious and worries remain.

In effect, the EC is saying Pita Limjaroenrat’s electoral candidacy registration is not affected by belated complaints initiated by petitioner Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, but seems to state that criminal action is possible concerning the question whether he was fully aware of the contentious iTV shares in his account when he registered his candidacy.

The EC rejected anti-candidacy complaints primarily on grounds that they had been submitted beyond time limits. Pita and his supporters certainly want to hear a reason stronger than this and, somehow, this brought back the memories of Thaksin Shinawatra’s “Servant Shares” case. Some judges in the Constitution Court did not think the court was empowered to handle the Thaksin case. Those judges were counted as “not-guilty” votes. Some agreed with that. Others didn’t.

The biggest question now has to do with what the EC really thinks and whether some will activate a criminal probe. Today’s EC ruling seems to say “We don’t have to state our opinions on the act because the complaints came too late.” As things stand, that may be still too little for comfort for Pita and his massive following.

However, the bright side for him is that if the issue is dragged into the realm of criminal action, it could take a lot longer and a possible blow will not come any time soon, if it will come at all, meaning the government-forming agenda could proceed with a much more breathing space.

June 9, 2023: If the first indictment of ex-American president Donald Trump was the point of no return, the second one this week could be the final nail in the coffin.

Well, not quite. The final nail in the coffin has to be if he wins his party’s “primary” approval and goes on to recapture the White House. That will be when the remaining dignity of a model political system is completely shattered.

He has been indicted on seven counts in a “classified documents” probe. It was a jaw-dropping development which marks the first time a former president has faced federal charges.

The allegations do not involve trivial things that politicians usually dig up against one another, mind you. He is facing a charge under the Espionage Act, as well as charges of obstruction of justice, destruction/falsification of records, conspiracy and false statements.

A few months ago, he had been indicted for being involved in an alleged cover-up/bribery in which a key player was a pornographic film actress.

All Trump indictments are part of a system that elected him as president, let him rule for four years, gives him a good chance of running the country again, and all the while paints him as inefficient, corrupt, dangerously imprudent, crazy, nepotistic with total abandon and even treacherous, dividing America in the process.

If those accusations are true, it begs the question why America’s democracy failed to spot it and stop it in the first place, instead letting him govern the country for four years. If they are not true, it’s also bad, begging the question why the smearers were allowed to do what they did and managed to dethrone him and take over a framed man’s noble job.

June 8, 2023: Move Forward’s success is allegedly forcing a serious rethink at the Pheu Thai Party, whose only obvious representative of the increasingly-influential young generation is Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter Paetongtarn.

According to certain sources quoted by The Manager website, Pheu Thai’s relentless push for the House speakership would facilitate a much-needed restructure, because if party leader Cholanan Srikaew takes up the new role, it would automatically allow a revamp of Pheu Thai’s executive board.

The sources said Move Forward’s election win shocked Pheu Thai, and while certain issues coming up during the campaign might affect voters’ decisions, it was believed that Move Forward’s youthful image helped more than anything else. And although prime ministerial candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra is young, she is perceived as the exception, not the rule, as far as Pheu Thai is concerned.

The sources were quoted as saying that it’s Thaksin’s idea that if Pheu Thai was to compete with Move Forward “in the long run”, flag-bearers or presenters would have to be considerably younger. Many of them are “outdated” currently, it was said. The sources reiterated that senior party members would be treated with respect, but poor election outcomes might lead to some graceful exits.

June 7, 2023: “The latest I heard from him, it’s still July,” Paetongtarn Shinawatra said today on her father’s vow to return from exile to Thailand.

But she said Thaksin Shinawatra will look at several factors before deciding exactly when he will pack up and board the plane.

Here’s a direct translation of what she said: “As of now there is no special coordination. But I think the plan will go step by step and the day should soon arrive. However, there will have to be (family) talks with him, which I think is part of the plan. Preparations have to be arranged, and in our minds there are a few versions of them. We are trying to think positively, and main points have to do with security. Nothing more nothing less. When the day is nearer we should know what he exactly wants us to do. We are not overthinking it. We are just planning to welcome him home.”

Asked to confirm if it was still July, she said: “I think so. But emerging circumstances will be taken into account because it’s a big deal. The latest I heard it’s still July.”

Asked how much of a role political circumstances will play, she said: “He will look at them (of course). He naturally wants good things to happen. He doesn’t want it to cause a chaotic situation. This, I think, is about good timing. It’s not about coming back or not coming back.”

June 6, 2023: There is a “justice process” to handle Thaksin Shinawatra’s homecoming, and Move Forward’s imminent legislative push for a general amnesty for political activities will not involve corruption, according to one of the most powerful men in the biggest party.

Thaksin has reiterated his pre-election pledge to return from exile next month no matter what transpires politically, and despite imprisonment awaiting him in Thailand. With Move Forward strongly tipped to lead the new government, how he is treated will affect the popular party which has justice equality as one of its major selling points.

Chaithawat Tulathon, Move Forward’s secretary-general, has been asked about the potential headache and his reply wouldn’t make Thaksin happy, nor would it make the whole Pheu Thai Party less skeptical about this “frenemy”.

Returning home is Thaksin’s “personal business”, Chaithawat said. “If he is to come back, there is a justice process for that. It’s everyone’s right to enter the process.”

Chaithawat did not clarify “the process”, but it looks like he was referring to the existing one, not a new, special process to be created for the man in Dubai.

Asked whether Move Forward’s intention to grant a general amnesty to those whose political activism gave them legal troubles would cover Thaksin, Chaithawat said: “I guess they are separate things. Proposed amnesty would affect people in political cases, such as those whose expressions of political thinking landed them in legal problems. The amnesty does not cover cases like corruption or offences that resulted in deaths or injuries. It (the proposed amnesty) is meant for reconciliation.”

June 5, 2023: The virtual “inaction” of iTV may benefit the man tipped to become Thailand’s next prime minister, but the firm’s perceived potentials to become active again may not.

iTV’s legal battle with the Office of the Permanent Secretary, the Prime Minister’s Office, can be interpreted as a possibility that the firm, of which tens of thousands of shares were held by Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat, would become lively on the media scene again, legal experts noted.

How the legal problem between iTV and the Office of the Permanent Secretary is seen by the Election Commission and the Constitutional Court could be crucial. Business inaction could lead to (or justify calls for) leniency but perceived dormancy with the possibility of fully waking up may not help him.

Apart from the legal fight, iTV’s business or financial ability to bounce back can weigh heavily on the minds of people set to rule on the controversy.

The Pita-iTV issue is likely to bring back to the surface Thailand’s need to have a truly-independent TV media network. With the government and military controlling or influencing most TV channels, that need was highlighted some two decades ago. Pita potentially becoming a government leader is not making it any easier.

June 4, 2023: Declaring itself as one of the friendliest LGBTQ towns, Pattaya will organise “International Pride” next year to promote its image among people and supporters of the community.

The plan coincides with what seems like an unprecedented scale of the “Pride Month” celebrations in Thailand that underline growing LGBTQ support which has also led to explosions in advertising, movies and TV dramas that would have been taboo in the old days.

Pattaya is notorious for dark local influences compounded by “grey powers” of foreigners who have been in the city for so long doing businesses that probably require controversial help. But it has remained one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations, and that is largely attributed to performances of talented homosexuals or gays. The town is brimming with the artistic LGBTQ performers and ordinary LGBTQ residents.

It was declared again over the past few days that LGBTQ people who feel discriminated elsewhere could come to Pattaya and be treated the same way as others. The LGBTQ presence, it was said, is increasing in other areas apart from the show business.

June 3, 2023: Without strong checks and highly-effective anti-graft measures, decentralised administrative power can become decentralised corruption which is a whole new problem, it has been warned.

“Centralised” corruption centralises the villains, who have already overwhelmed Thailand’s anti-graft fighters. Imagine if the villains are all over the place.

Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat has assured leaders of local administrative organisations that his future government would be serious about decentralisation, although it would go step by step.

He believes decentralisation would bring about prosperity in rural areas. Move Forward has talked about it long before the Pita fever, and the possibility of provincial gubernatorial elections is now closer to reality than ever before.

Rural governing bodies should be given more independence, Pita has told leaders of the Provincial Administrative Organisations, Tambon Administrative Organizations and the National Municipal Association of Thailand. He likened local administrative organisations to the base of a pyramid, which is in close contact with the people and, therefore, should be familiar with their problems.

Potential prosperity and democratic activities are the bright side of decentralisation. Its dark side, however, is obvious. While absolute, centralised power can corrupt absolutely, decentralised power can corrupt decentrally.

June 2, 2023: What do Pita Limjaroenrat and Thaksin Shinawatra have in common? They did not officially report arguably the most controversial parts of their “assets.”

Thaksin said shares in his employees’ accounts were technically theirs and whatever had happened regarding the stocks before he became prime minister and his failure to report it to the authorities once he played politics were an “honest mistake”. Pita said the iTV shares in effect did not belong to him and were under his name only because he was the executor of a will. The young political leader did not say it out loud, but he appeared to invoke the “honest mistake” excuse while stating that he did not know he had to submit a written report about it.

Thaksin was barely let off the Constitutional Court’s hook with a controversial vote count that remains contentious as of today. (Some Constitutional Court judges who did not think the court should handle the case were counted as “not guilty” votes, without which he would have lost otherwise).

Constitutional rules, election laws and stock market regulations came into play in the tumultuous Thaksin affair. Opinions clashed. Columnists fought. Legal experts were at war. The media stuck to the story like glue.

Fast forward to this year, constitutional rules, election laws, political party regulations as well as the code of conduct of Move Forward itself will feature in a similar frenzy concerning another highly-popular political leader.

Some people have started saying that the May 14 elections can be largely nullified. That remains a very remote possibility, but it doesn’t mean Pita was 100 per cent correct when he shrugged off his problem as trivial.

June 1, 2023: Comments by a deputy leader of Thailand’s biggest political party will not make the status quo of the armed forces too happy.

Picharn Chaopattanawong ceremoniously welcomed “good signs” from the military but immediately launched into criticism concerning “lack of details” regarding downsizing which his party is understood to be planning to push. He also emphasized that major reforms would require a great political will.

“Over the past four years, we only heard about goals, but were never told how to get there,” he said.

He added that while it was “interesting” to learn that the military had no extension, modification or enhancement plans for the 3^rd Cavalry Division and the 7^th Infantry Division, what will be more interesting is the question why they need to be continued. It was a statement as strong as it can get.

He also talked about “transparency” in military-related businesses or dealings and questioned the use of new recruits as “servants” of high-ranking official as well as the appropriateness of giving military residences to senior retirees.

He said what he has observed “is positive because the military is starting to shape its directions in response to the policy of the Move Forward government.” Picharn concluded that he was “confident that our party’s military reform plan will be understood and welcomed by all soldiers who love democracy and have honestly performed their duties.”

Daily updates of key local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim