With Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat out of the way, the political ball is now in the Pheu Thai Party’s court. But it’s certainly not going to be a smooth sailing for Thailand’s former biggest opposition party in attempting to form a post-election coalition.

In the words of one of its deputy leaders Sutin Klungsaeng, Pheu Thai is facing a big dilemma as to how to handle its biggest sworn ally.

One choice is for both parties to lead the opposition bloc– a choice that would be much welcomed by Move Forward’s supporters but certainly dreaded by Pheu Thai’s bigwigs raring for the post-election political spoils.

Speaking to Thai PBS in the aftermath of Pita’s failure to be renominated for the post of prime minister on Wednesday, Sutin suggested that a more palatable choice for Pheu Thai is for the party to take charge of forming the coalition – with or eventually without Move Forward.

Move Forward and Pheu Thai are among the eight political parties which are signatories of a political MOU that binds them together as partners of a post-election coalition with Pita as prime minister.

Now with Pita’s political dream shattered, Sutin suggested that the MOU might need to be revisited.

Pheu Thai’s best-case scenario is for the eight parties to adhere to their political pact and nominate one of its prime ministerial candidates, for the top executive post.  Well-known real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin has now emerged as the most likely nomination.

“But the problem is that many of the senators have insisted that they would not vote for Srettha as long as Move Forward is still there and not budging on the issue of Article 112,” said Sutin.

The majority of the military-appointed senators last Thursday voted down Move Forward leader Pita’s nomination as prime minister because of their opposition to his party’s plan to amend the lese majeste law.

Sutin also admitted Move Forward’s presence in the nascent coalition also turns off political parties on the other side of the aisle which are against the party’s stand on the lese majeste law.  “They are not going to vote for Srettha either for that reason,” he said.

It would certainly be ideal for Pheu Thai if it can convince these political parties to be on board and broaden the coalition in return for their votes for Srettha, and with Move Forward toning down its stand on the lese majeste law  – a kind of horse-trading that is common in normal time.

But key leaders in Pheu Thai admitted to Thai PBS that it is Move Forward’s “devil may care” attitude that has complicated things.  “Pita has made it clear that if worse comes to worst, his party is prepared to become the opposition any time,” said one of them, referring to Pita’s insistence on amending the lese majeste law.

“You just can’t do the kind of political bargaining with Move Forward like you do with normal political parties,” he said.

But no matter how eager Pheu Thai would want to walk away from the eight-party alliance, it cannot afford to be seen as abandoning Move Forward by joining hands with the parties in the outgoing Prayut government or it would face a backlash from the latter’s supporters.

“It would be a quite a challenge to justify with the public why we ditch Move Forward,” he said, referring to news reports that Pheu Thai has been in talks with the pro-establishment parties for an alternative coalition.

Pheu Thai’s preference, according to many analysts, is to see Move Forward leave the alliance on its own accord.  One scenario is that as the party that is calling the shots, Pheu Thai insists on bringing in additional parties to the alliance – something that is most likely to be unacceptable to Move Forward.

Sutin said key leaders of the eight-party alliance will meet in the next few days to decide on their next course of action before the Parliament meets again on July 27 to vote on the prime minister nomination.

Phumtham Wechayachai, another deputy leader of Pheu Thai, has admitted to Thai PBS that dealing with Move Forward has always been an “exhaustive exercise.”  So it should not be a surprise if the next meeting will be another one.

By Thepchai Yong