Past governments were judged largely along ideological lines. By that, controversial figures in Cabinets were noted, but eventually they would be accepted as virtual necessities. When something bad about them emerged later, they would be booked, but not actually red-carded or booed off the park. When bridges crumbled or local officials received bribes from pubs full of drugs and underage customers, supporters tended to say “Horrible things happen to everyone and everywhere” but their opposite numbers would say “See? This is what we get from rulers like this.”
The upcoming government will have that privilege pulled away from under its feet. Worst still, some judgement has already been made. One latest poll which showed an alarming plunge in Pheu Thai’s popularity and big jump in Move Forward’s only confirmed that Srettha Thavisin is not inspiring confidence, and that criticism against any administrative mistake, major or trivial, will come from left, right and centre.
The only protection is a good Cabinet doing a good job. Bad news is it’s an extremely tall order, given the numbers of partners and their factions, in addition to the certainty that intense scrutiny will come from every direction and the fact that some “qualified” appointees in somebody’s eyes can be poor choices in others’. Clashing public policies of the allies are making the mission even more daunting.
But Srettha badly needs a good start. Not that it will help guarantee he reaches the finish line first, but stumbling off the block will hasten a widely-expected downfall. And he wouldn’t want to call an early election for obvious reasons.
As an opposition party, Move Forward can only gain more popularity, although what they have currently is more than enough. In the meantime, experiences will come from the Democrats, who everyone knows always excel while they are not in the government. A Move Forward-Democrat combination can be any government’s nightmare, let alone one as politically fragile as Srettha’s.
Move Forward struggling to “reset” itself so it can fully function as the opposition, along with a weakened Democrat Party, might help Srettha a little. But the new prime minister can’t pin his hope on the possibility of a rudderless opposition. Unlike the Yingluck and Prayut administrations, the Srettha government will face a very intense “neutral” scrutiny.
A good Cabinet will have to be presented along with policies fine-tuned to accommodate one another. It will be pointless if a “good” Pheu Thai minister arguing with a “good” Palang Pracharath minister over, say, what should be the most suitable daily minimum wage. In other words, a “great” Cabinet is nothing if policies aren’t great.
News and speculation about the new Cabinet are not encouraging. Old-fashioned horse trading has come into play, and clashing policies trumpeted during the election campaign stand to be tested because they are now in the same governmental package. Srettha will reportedly double as the finance minister and that can only make the “digital wallet” proposal a thornier or even more explosive issue. Pheu Thai expectedly controlling the Public Health Ministry will raise questions about the “progress” of cannabis deregulation. There is also an issue of America versus China that can go in different directions depending on which party in the Srettha coalition supervises the Foreign Ministry.
The Justice Ministry, meanwhile, will be closely watched thanks to the connections between Pheu Thai and Thaksin Shinawatra.
On the one hand, those are just examples of numerous, potential conflicts, meaning that among recent governments, Srettha’s is on the shakiest ground. But on the other hand, it will be forced to take action based on the best interests of “both halves” of Thailand.
For too long, Thai Cabinets have been totally partisan and based on cutthroat politics, hence limiting their own capabilities and making the public suffer. Bad, ominous signs have been all over the news once again, with media outlets defining Srettha’s Cabinet formation “success” as the ability to please various political factions. That’s a crying shame but it’s also Thailand’s political reality.
Prayut Chan-o-cha was fairly popular at first, but incumbency along with the need to pacify the bad guys led to growing doubts and finally the opposition’s stunning election victory. He had a very hard job, but Srettha’s is a lot harder. The two have faced the same evil in politics, though, which comes in the form of the need to get all the support they could lay their hands on.
How can Srettha overcome factional politics and produce a great Cabinet that can really serve the public? It’s the toughest political question, but it’s also the real “reform” question.
In other words, Thailand can have a dozen more charter amendments going back and forth with how the Senate should come about and function, but as long as the Cabinet formation has to please particular groups more than the general public, no actual “reform” is taking place.
By Tulsathit Taptim
