The world used to be so simple. Formerly, it was America and Europe up against the mighty Soviet Union. Then it was weakened Russia and rising China up against America and Europe. Two big, global alliances and that should be it.
But a few days ago, Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky chose to dress himself up in a military attire and went to meet the president and vice president of the United States at the White House. The rest is history.
Now, we are seeing western Europe and America seriously frowning upon each other and starting to mistrust each other. Have the world’s Two Kingdoms now become three? The United States, the European Union countering Russia plus China would be a perfect love-hate triangle, an old-fashioned Romance of the Three Kingdoms.
But not so fast. Who say Russia and China will continue to be closest allies forever and ever? The former is trying to rebuild or reinforce its greatness and the latter is trying to add to its powerful emergence. In other words, two tigers in the same cave.
It could be Romance of the Four (not Three) Kingdoms. America, Europe, Russia and China would be a love-hate square, not triangle. There are levels of old friendship and codependence, but nobody can trust anybody _ politically, economically, and ideologically.
Back to Europe and America, many people assumed that they are going through a small and unlucky incident threatening to go out of hand. There is this theory that had Zelensky worn a proper suit to the White House, things would have been fine.
But what if what looks like a domino effect starting from something so trivial was in fact part of an inevitable upheaval on the global scale that was waiting to happen anyway?
What if the dress-code uproar was a setup? What if America under Donald Trump has finished its new calculations and concluded that the Ukraine war was absolutely not worth Washington’s time and money?
What if those calculations also called for a drastic reduction of financial and economic disadvantages America has had to endure to keep alive unblemished relationship with Europe? What if Trump’s America is thinking “Why do my own financial security has to suffer to maintain other people’s security”?
What if America and Europe are vying fiercely behind the scenes like hungry creatures for rare minerals (used for military and heavy industry purposes) in Ukraine and suppressed frustration has suddenly exploded?
And why are US tariff policies hurting close allies as much as China? Is it possible that Trump’s America is saying “We are through being a philanthropist because friends are costing us as much as the enemies”?
If that was the case (America plans to pay less but when push comes to shove ideology will prevail), the bipolar world would remain uncomplicated. It means the whole thing is a normal sulking, nothing that can’t be fixed with a bunch of flowers.
But if it was more than just the money, in other words if the leaning toward Russia was also political apart from financial, the simplicity stops.
What appears certain is that Europe and America are undergoing a significant transformation of their relationship. Do they still need each other? As for Europe, yes, they still need the American backup, but in a less-influential s
