If Pheu Thai needs one good reason why it should back down from its flagship electoral promise, the party does not have to look beyond the 14th floor of the Police Hospital.
The pending “digital wallet” scheme and the controversial post-exile treatment of Thaksin Shinawatra are becoming a potentially-disastrous mixture that the ruling party will find to be too much to handle.
The countdown is beginning for Thaksin to be qualified for an absolute amnesty, a combustible issue on its own, while the ball has been definitely back in Pheu Thai’s court regarding a plan to borrow Bt500 billion to fund digital wallet.
During the newly-ended budget debate, the opposition Move Forward Party gave a hint about how easy the two problems can merge. There is a lot of state money being wasted, the party said, and one great example is how much the “privileges” being given to Thaksin are costing Thai taxpayers.
A previously-unthinkable scenario of “yellow” and “orange” protesters taking to the streets for the same causes is being increasingly talked about. Everyone knows the yellows don’t like Thaksin and any “populist” programme associated with him.
The oranges, meanwhile, liked Thaksin when he suited them but that is no longer the case, and with Move Forward in the opposition they can never support digital wallet.
Granted, Move Forward can come across as a hypocrite. (The party did not oppose digital wallet during the election campaign, while Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit had admitted to meeting Thaksin after the May election and tearfully bemoaned the missed opportunity of Move Forward and Pheu Thai to work together.
This ironically means that if Pheu Thai emerged from the election as the bigger party, they would form a government with Move Forward and nothing would stop digital wallet anyway.)
But hypocrisy matters little in politics and can encompass all ideological realms. In other words, Pheu Thai cannot pin its hopes on a past relationship as well as the perception of Thaksin in many “liberal” quarters as a victim of political persecution.
It will be a perfect storm. Digital wallet presents legal, constitutional and economic risks, whereas Thaksin is primarily political. This is not to mention the Yingluck Shinawatra factor and Paetongtarn waiting in the wings. Pheu Thai cannot fight a battle with so many rival prongs.
One strange theory has it that Pheu Thai is already giving up on digital wallet, but it has not told the public yet. This theory originated from the fact that the party sought to borrow Bt500 billion through proposing a bill to Parliament instead of issuing a royal decree that would be a lot quicker and support claims that the Thai economy is in urgent need for an emergency stimulant.
Proposing a bill gives Pheu Thai more flexibility. The party can also claim that it’s “democratic” enough to give Parliament a chance to block something if it anticipates big problems. The party would be able to tell its support that “We have tried, but the others are not with us.”
\The borrowing bill flies in the face of the “emergency” claim, though, as well as Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s attempts to convince foreign investors that the Thai economy is all right. But just like hypocrisy, discrepancies are not big deals in politics. If Pheu Thai wants to retreat, it can do so.
If it does not, it will be a trek through uncharted territories strewn with booby-traps. In one scenario, senators vote to stall the borrowing bill and hence become Move Forward’s ally for this big issue in the process.
The bill will then come back to the House of Representatives that needs to reaffirm it requiring support from parties that balked out digital wallet not a long while ago.
It will have been too late for Prime Minister Srettha to dissolve the House by then. In fact, it can be too late for a lot of other people.
Common sense suggests it has to be either Thaksin or digital wallet, not both. Even just one of them is a big ask. Since Thaksin is already here and his daughter has become the leader of the ruling party, it will be a no-brainer if Pheu Thai has to make a choice.
If it wants to avoid a political tsunami, that is.
Tulsathit Taptim
