The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has projected Thailand’s GDP growth for 2025 at 2%, after growth in the third quarter contracted to just 1.2%, compared to 2.8% for the second quarter. Growth for three quarters this year has been 2.4%.
NESDC Secretary-General Onfa Vejjajiva projected that GDP growth in 2026 is forecast to range between 1.2% and 2.2% only.
For the third quarter, consumption by the private increased 2.6%, while public sector consumption contracted by 3.9%, private investment increased 4.2% while government investment dropped 5.3%, exports and services expanded 6.9%, with exports growing by 10.8% while services contracted by 10.7%.
The agricultural sector grew by 1.9%, the industrial sector contracted by 1.6%. Hospitality and food services expanded by 0.8%, the transport sector expanded by 3% but he construction sector contracted by 4%.
The modest growth for this full year is, however, supported by private consumption, forecast at 2.1%, the 1.2% growth increase in public sector consumption, a 2.9% rise in government investment with a 2.4% current account surplus.
Growth for next year is projected at between 1.2% and 2.2%, with 1.7% as the median rate, thanks to an anticipated increase in consumption and investment by the private sector, with support from the government’s policy efforts, recovery of the tourism sector and increased agricultural output.
Export value next year is forecast to increase by 0.2%-1.2%, compared to 0.5% for 2025, while import value is projected to grow by 0.5%-1.5%. Tourist arrivals are projected to increase to 35, million compared to 33 million this year.
