Bangkok’s election battleground will likely be dominated by two pro-democracy parties on May 14 – the long-popular Pheu Thai and its formidable challenger Move Forward.

Dr Stithorn Thananithichot, director of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, predicts these two parties will take over the city in the upcoming general election.

“The conservative camp may go extinct in the capital. But it has a chance in certain constituencies where fierce competition between Pheu Thai and Move Forward candidates [will split the vote].” he said.

What the opinion polls say

A survey of 39,687 Bangkok voters conducted by Nation Group between April 7 and 12 predicts 14 Bangkok seats for Pheu Thai, 10 for Move Forward, five for the Democrat Party, two for Thai Sang Thai, and just one each for the United Thai Nation Party and Palang Pracharath.

The same survey found that Pheu Thai’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the most popular prime ministerial candidate among Bangkokians, with 29.76%. Next is Pita Limjaroenrat of Move Forward with 24.43%, followed by Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin (12.58%). Outgoing PM General Prayut Chan-o-cha of United Thai Nation received the support of only 4.96% of Bangkokians surveyed. Respondents who said they were still undecided totaled 18.41%.

About 40% of respondents said they would cast their ballots for Pheu Thai in both the constituency and party-list ballots, while 23% said both of their votes would go to Move Forward. About 22% were undecided over which party to support and 20.82% undecided on the constituency candidate they would vote for. However, parties from the conservative camp – including the Democrats and Palang Pracharath – received support in single-figure percentages.

Meanwhile, a Nida Poll survey released in late March found that 34.92% of Bangkok respondents intended to vote for Pheu Thai in both constituency and party-list ballots. The Move Forward Party was preferred in both ballots by 27.72%, while the United Thai Nation Party scored 14.32%.

The capital’s voters seem to be tilting towards Move Forward’s Pita as their favorite candidate for prime minister.

Based on the last three monthly nationwide surveys conducted by Nida Poll, Pita’s popularity has surged – from 15.75% in March to 20.25% in April, and 35.44% in May. The polls indicate he has now overtaken Paetongtarn, whose popularity nationwide dropped from 38.20% in March to 35.70% in April and 29.20% in May.

Although it is Parliament that will select the next prime minister, PM candidates act as figureheads whose popularity can significantly boost the chances of their parties’ MP candidates when it comes to election day.

44 years of political development in Thailand

Pro-democracy vs conservative camps

Stithorn reckons after so many years under a conservative government, more and more Bangkokians are leaning towards the pro-democracy camp. By his estimate, the pro-democracy camp has captured the hearts of about 60% of Bangkok residents while the rest remain conservative.

He believes the 60% vote for the pro-democracy camp will be divided roughly half and half between Pheu Thai and Move Forward. “But the 40% of Bangkok votes for the conservative camp will be shared by four parties, namely Palang Pracharath, United Thai Nation, the Democrats, and Bhumjaithai.”

Stithorn said the four main parties of the conservative camp risked winning no MP seats in Bangkok because they are all competing against each other for the same voter base.

Bhumjaithai Party, 10 of whose candidates had won Bangkok seats in 2019 under other banners, may face problems given that its PM candidate Anutin Charnvirakul has a public approval rating of just 1.64%.

“The United Thai Nation and the Palang Pracharath parties face the highest election risk in the capital,” Stithorn commented.

In the 2019 election, Palang Pracharath emerged as the biggest party in the capital. The pro-military and staunchly conservative party won 12 of the 30 seats available in Bangkok. Pheu Thai and Future Forward, Move Forward’s predecessor, each won nine seats in the city.

Palang Pracharath ran with coup leader Prayut as its PM candidate in 2019. However, Prayut has since joined the newly established United Thai Nation Party in his bid to win a third term as prime minister.

Swing voters

Stithorn believes swing voters could prove decisive in the battle for MP seats in Bangkok. This year, the capital’s 4.469 million voters will elect 33 constituency MPs plus another dozen or so party-list MPs. Parties need a minimum of about 350,000 votes to win a party-list seat.

“Both Pheu Thai and Move Forward are therefore battling to sway undecided voters to their side,” Stithorn said. “You are going to see more political gimmicks in the run-up to the election,” he predicted.

Campaigning hits final straight

Though heavily pregnant, Paetongtarn turned up on Bangkok stages on April 23 and 24 in a bid to woo more city dwellers to vote for Pheu Thai. Her message was simple and direct: “Kill dictators with your pen. Don’t let anyone seize the people’s power again.”

Pheu Thai Party has also recently unveiled Sanpiti Sittipunt, the only son of Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt – who won last year’s gubernatorial election as an independent candidate by a landslide – as its assistant election campaigner.

Pheu Thai’s MP candidates have also shown up at rallies held on major intersections in Bangkok to impress voters in recent weeks. It plans a huge rally two days ahead of the election at IMPACT Muang Thong Arena on May 12.

The Move Forward Party, meanwhile, is seeking to reach “ordinary people” with its campaign messages, saying they make up the majority of Thais.

“You will be able to use the power in your hands to create changes in less than two weeks … after we let our society become distorted for too long,” it said. Move Forward describes its MP candidates as ordinary people with straightforward solutions for problems in society. The party will hold its final big rally on May 12 at the Bangkok Youth Center.

The Democrat Party, which was wiped out from its Bangkok stronghold in a disastrous showing in 2019, is relying on the popularity of its ex-leader and former PM Abhisit Vejjajiva as it bids to win back a few seats in the capital. Abhisit has been very active in wooing votes for Democrat candidates over the past few months.

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk