Pheu Thai could be facing an electoral meltdown following the latest legal blows suffered by its patriarch and ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, analysts say.
The attorney-general’s decision to appeal Thaksin’s acquittal in a lese majeste case, coupled with a Supreme Court ruling ordering him to pay 17 billion baht in unpaid taxes, threatens a longer prison term for him and darkens the outlook for the former ruling party in the general election, expected by late March.
Widely regarded as Pheu Thai’s patriarch and de facto leader, Thaksin is currently serving a one-year prison term handed down by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions in early September.
The court ruled that Thaksin’s transfer to serve his sentence at the Police General Hospital in 2023 was unlawful and thus did not count as time served in jail.
That legal setback for Thaksin came just days after his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was removed as prime minister by the Constitutional Court over a leaked phone call with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen.
The court found her guilty of ethical misconduct for trying to appease Hun Sen and criticising a Thai military commander in charge of the border during a dispute with Cambodia.
The phone scandal and the Pheu Thai-led government’s handling of the border conflict undermined the party’s popularity, particularly among voters in the Northeast, its traditional stronghold. Pheu Thai fared poorly in the Northeast and other regions of the country in recent opinion polls.
Seeking PM’s removal
Assoc Prof Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, said Thaksin’s latest legal setbacks “immediately affected people’s faith and confidence in Pheu Thai, since he is the party’s central figure and spiritual leader”. He believes that the tax verdict, in particular, took a serious toll on Thaksin’s credibility.
The analyst said Pheu Thai now risk losing dozens of seats in the next election, predicting its MP total could fall from the current 141 to between 50 and 60 in a worst-case scenario.
With its bargaining power shrinking fast under the legal blows, Pheu Thai will be forced to fight for its survival, Olarn said. He believes the second largest opposition party is now mobilising a censure debate to unseat Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul as quickly as possible.
With Anutin removed, Pheu Thai could return to power and rebuild its popularity over the remaining year of this parliamentary term, which runs until 2027.
“Thaksin has to play this game. It’s the only way he can regain power quickly. I believe Pheu Thai will file a censure motion [against Anutin],” Olarn said.
Anutin recently threatened to dissolve the House if a censure motion is filed against his government when Parliament reconvenes on December 12. He argued that calling a no-confidence debate would amount to political betrayal, as he has already agreed to dissolve the House by the end of January in a deal made with the main opposition People’s Party.
The PM clearly wants to avoid a damaging no-confidence vote, which would result if Pheu Thai and the People’s Party unite against his minority government.
Any House dissolution must occur before a no-confidence motion is filed, since the Constitution prohibits dissolution once such a motion has been submitted.
Pheu Thai ‘in disarray’
Analysts say the dual legal headache for Thaksin could severely deplete both Pheu Thai’s popularity and its finances ahead of the next general election.
Suranand Vejjajiva, a former Pheu Thai insider turned political commentator, says the latest legal setbacks for the party’s patriarch are likely to weaken his political influence and credibility, leading to defections by Pheu Thai MPs.
Potential rebels would find it easier to leave the party now that Thaksin’s hands are tied by legal cases, he added.
“The current situation will leave the party in disarray,” predicted Suranand, who served in governments led by Thaksin and his sister, Yingluck.
Assoc Prof Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, agreed that Thaksin’s fresh legal trouble would weaken many Pheu Thai politicians’ confidence in the party’s electoral prospects, which could in turn trigger mass defections by its MPs.
“Thaksin’s two additional legal problems bring a high risk of severe impacts on Pheu Thai,” the analyst said. The removal of Thaksin – considered Pheu Thai’s key political deal-broker behind the scenes – would put the party at a disadvantage at the election and in the post-poll fight to form a new coalition government, Yutthaporn said.
With no strong contender to take over Thaksin’s role as the party’s powerbroker, Pheu Thai’s popularity and negotiating power are bound to suffer, the analyst said.
Double trouble
On November 17, newly appointed Attorney-General Itthiphon Kaewthip ordered public prosecutors to appeal Thaksin’s acquittal in a royal defamation case stemming from an interview he gave to South Korean media in 2015.
The Criminal Court had earlier dismissed the case on August 22, ruling there was insufficient evidence to prove Thaksin had insulted the monarchy – an offence punishable by up to 15 years in prison.
Itthiphon’s decision contradicted a review conducted by an 11-member committee at the Attorney-General’s Office, which voted 8:2 in September not to appeal. The top prosecutor, who chaired the panel while serving as deputy attorney-general, reportedly abstained from the vote.
Just hours after the appeal order was issued, the Supreme Court separately ordered Thaksin to pay a 17.6-billion-baht tax bill on his family’s 2006 sale of Shin Corporation shares worth 73.2 billion baht to Singapore’s Temasek.
The verdict overturned lower court rulings in favour of the ex-premier, who had sued the Revenue Department seeking annulment of its “unlawful” tax assessment.
Thaksin’s lawsuit had cited a technicality, pointing out that the Revenue Department failed to follow the necessary legal step of summoning him to acknowledge the assessment before issuing a notice.
The court found that Thaksin concealed his ownership of Shin Corp, passing the shareholding to his children, Panthongtae and Pintongta, to hold on his behalf because the law prohibited a government minister from holding shares in a private company.
The court ruled Thaksin’s action constituted a “lack of tax ethics and a serious illegal transaction” that violated the spirit of taxation.
Victimised or bad karma?
Thaksin’s supporters – led by his children, legal advisers and Pheu Thai politicians – claim he is the victim of injustice at the hands of an elitist establishment.
Others say his latest legal setbacks are merely “karma” for misdeeds during his tenure as prime minister from 2001 to 2006.
Theptai Seanapong, a former Democrat MP turned political commentator, said in a recent Facebook post that certain Pheu Thai politicians appear to be portraying Thaksin as a victim to stir sympathy for him and the party among his hardcore red shirt supporters.
However, that once reliable support base has now weakened, meaning the strategy is unlikely to significantly boost Pheu Thai’s popularity at the next election, Olarn said.
