The ruling Pheu Thai Party is forecast to maintain its dominance over the opposition-leading People’s Party in this Saturday's (February 1) local elections, as the two titans of Thai politics battle for control of provincial administrations.
Bhumjaithai, Thailand’s third-largest party, has fielded no official candidates in contests to elect Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chief executives in 47 provinces and council members in 76 provinces. Instead, the coalition's No 2 has a strategy of backing independent candidates to win control over PAOs.
A three-way race
Analysts say the People’s Party (PP) faces an uphill battle to make an impression on the PAO chief elections.
The core opposition party’s predecessor, Move Forward, failed to win any of the 29 PAO chief posts contested last year, in elections triggered when incumbents resigned early in the hope of being re-elected.
Move Forward suffered defeat even in provinces where it had previously won MP seats with big margins in the 2023 general election when it scored a stunning victory over Pheu Thai in the nationwide popular vote.
While many candidates affiliated with Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai come from local political dynasties with established voter bases, PP will have to depend mainly on support from young voters to gain a foothold in local politics.
Many candidates linked to Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai are former or incumbent PAO chief executives who command strong local influence and support.
They also maintain close connections with authorities and people in power. These factors give them a significant advantage over the mainly political newcomers fielded by the People’s Party.
Incentives to win PAO seats
Although victory in provincial elections does not guarantee success in national elections, parties have strong incentives to battle hard to win PAO chief seats.
Control of PAOs gives them power over large local budgets, enabling them to expand their political networks, says Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.
He notes that these incentives have even lured many national politicians to switch their focus to winning a PAO chief’s seat.
Winning one of these local posts is also seen as a springboard to national power.
“Provincial dynasties often target PAO chief’s seats to boost their local influence in the hope of winning seats in Parliament,” the analyst said.
The previous nationwide provincial elections held in December 2020 were topped by Pheu Thai, which won 20 of the 76 PAO chief seats up for grabs.
The party – then in opposition – narrowly beat the ruling Palang Pracharath, which won 18 seats, followed by Bhumjaithai (15), and the Democrats (9).
Smaller parties secured nine seats, while independent candidates won the rest.
PP’s first incarnation, Future Forward, was disbanded ahead of the last PAO chief elections but reformed as the Progressive Movement in time to contest in 42 provinces. However, it failed to win a single seat.
Four years ago, the Progressive Movement fielded as many as 1,000 candidates in council elections across 53 provinces but went on to secure just 57 seats in 20 provinces.
Campaign stars collide
Pheu Thai and People’s Party campaigning for this Saturday’s PAO elections has been dominated by prominent national politicians.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the father of current PM and Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn has held rallies in support of ruling party candidates across provinces in the North and Northeast of the country, Pheu Thai’s political strongholds.
Meanwhile, former Future Forward chief Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Move Forward’s ex-leader Pita Limjaroenrat have been campaigning hard for PP candidates nationwide.
Thaksin, Thanathorn, and Pita have been banned from politics by separate court rulings but are legally permitted to speak at party rallies in their capacity as campaign assistants.
Parties vie for their share
Pheu Thai is officially fielding PAO chief candidates in 16 provinces, while PP is contesting in 17 provinces.
Other major parties – including Bhumjaithai, the Democrats, and the United Thai Nation – are fielding no official candidates, instead preferring to align with independents from local political dynasties.
The vote for PAO chiefs will take place in 47 provinces, with 29 seats already filled after early elections last year. The provincial council elections will be held in all 76 provinces nationwide.
Of the previously elected 29 PAO chiefs, 10 are affiliated with Pheu Thai, the same number with Bhumjaithai, and three each with Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation.
Voters will be able to cast their ballots on Saturday between 8am and 5pm. A total of 192 candidates are contesting for the 47 PAO chief seats up for grabs, while 6,815 are running for provincial councils, according to the Election Commission (EC).
The EC expects to see a voter turnout of at least 65%, compared with 62.9% in the 2020 elections.
Top-tier local governments
PAOs sit at the tip of Thailand’s local government pyramid. Each of the country’s 76 provinces – excluding the capital, Bangkok – has its own provincial administrative organisation.
The key mission of PAOs is to provide public services, in support of the government’s work, to residents in areas not covered by municipality or tambon (village tract) administrative organisations.
Thailand’s capital has no PAO and is instead ruled at the local government level by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA), headed by the Bangkok governor.
Each PAO has one chief executive, who is elected for a term of four years, unless they resign, are dismissed, or their tenure is otherwise interrupted. A PAO, however, has between 24 and 48 elected councillors, depending on the size of the population in the province it serves.
Chief executives of PAOs lead the provinces’ local executive branch, while councillors form the legislative branch.
The former creates local development plans, draws up budget plans, and compiles performance and spending reports while the latter passes legislation that covers provinces and keeps local executives in check.
Elected PAO chief executives and councillors can serve a maximum tenure of two consecutive four-year terms.
PAO chiefs are paid 75,530 baht per month (salary plus allowances), while councillors receive a salary of 19,440 baht. The monthly salary for the council’s chair is 30,540 baht, and 24,990 baht for the deputy chair.
