Thailand must bolster its macroeconomic resilience to weather a series of global economic headwinds while accelerating structural reforms to assist vulnerable groups, Thailand’s Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas told a high-level panel at the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
Speaking at the "Debate on the Global Economy: Forging Resilient and Dynamic Economies for the Future" session, Dr. Ekniti likened Thailand to a "small vessel navigating a sea of multiple tempests," echoing challenges faced by emerging economies worldwide.
Dr. Ekniti outlined four main economic "storms" impacting the kingdom: rising energy prices, geo-economic fragmentation, surging global interest rates and bond yields, and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI).
Despite heavy reliance on imported energy and elevated living costs, Thailand has successfully navigated volatile debt markets through strict adherence to fiscal prudence, Dr. Ekniti noted.
Thailand's 10-year government bond yield currently stands at approximately 2.3%, substantially lower than those of major Western economies.
On the same panel, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Eurogroup President and Minister of Economy and Finance, Greece, cited 10-year yields in the US at 5.2%, France at 4.9%, and the UK at 5.4%.
"As a small vessel, what we must do is make our ship sturdy enough to withstand the wind," Dr. Ekniti said, attributing the nation's favorable yields to robust macroeconomic stability.
However, he cautioned that macroeconomic stability is a prerequisite rather than the end destination.
"Building resilience means supporting low-income households and SMEs to absorb shocks and accelerating their transition so they can brace for even bigger storms ahead," he said, emphasising the need for targeted structural reforms.
Addressing the fourth storm, the rise of AI, Dr. Ekniti pointed out that Thailand finds itself in an advantageous position as an integral part of the global tech supply chain.
His views aligned with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who maintained the IMF’s 2026 global economic growth forecast at 3.1%, but highlighted significant shifts beneath the surface.
The IMF upgraded growth projections for a select group of seven economies benefiting directly from the AI surge.
This includes primary developers, the United States, China, and India, alongside key value-chain suppliers, where Georgieva explicitly named Thailand and South Korea.
However, fuel-importing nations unconnected to AI and conflict-affected regions faced downgraded forecasts.
Georgieva nonetheless warned that global reliance on AI creates a fragile foundation.
"The global economy is effectively standing on one leg powered by AI," she noted, warning that overinflated investor expectations or unmitigated financial risks from AI could unsettle global economic stability.
On regional cooperation, Dr. Ekniti highlighted that trade among ASEAN member states currently accounts for only around 22% of the bloc's total trade volume, underscoring substantial headroom for expansion to cushion external vulnerabilities.
The panel discussion also featured key global policymakers, including Luis Caputo, Argentina's Minister of Economy, and Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.
