In a surprise move, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra last Friday (March 24) announced he was ready to return and serve his prison term in Thailand regardless of the May 14 general election results.

His declaration drew widespread skepticism though, with many observers suspecting it was simply meant to woo voter support for his proxy Pheu Thai Party ahead of the election.

Analysts view Thaksin’s remarks as an attempt to boost Pheu Thai’s chance of a landslide victory and with it, his bargaining power. But they warned his move could backfire by spurring conservative parties to join forces to prevent a Pheu Thai return to power and Thaksin’s comeback.

Killing two birds with one stone

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, said Thaksin’s latest move was aimed at increasing Pheu Thai’s chances of winning enough seats to form a majority government.

“He is well aware that without a landslide victory for Pheu Thai, his chances of returning home are minimal,” Olarn said.

Thaksin was ousted in the 2006 military coup and sentenced in absentia to a total of 12 years in prison after being found guilty in four separate cases.

Olarn said the former PM was trying to kill two birds with one stone. First, he was aiming to convince skeptical Pheu Thai supporters that he did not want the party to seek an amnesty for him. Second, he was aiming to coax supporters of other opposition parties to help Pheu Thai secure a landslide win by saying that the ruling Palang Pracharath Party would “probably be the last choice” for Pheu Thai to form a post-election coalition, said the academic.

The analyst said that Thaksin prefers to play a game that he can win. And Thaksin seems convinced that the higher Pheu Thai’s chance of forming the next government, the higher his bargaining power with Thai elites, Olarn said.

“Playing this game may help Pheu Thai secure the big win it needs to gain an upper hand in bargaining for power. [Thaksin] knows well that Thai elites always prefer to take the winner’s side. He has to keep the chances of victory alive, so he needs to play this game,” the analyst said.

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In an interview with Kyodo News last week, Thaksin insisted that he would not seek amnesty from Parliament even if Pheu Thai took power after the election.

“I’ve already served 16 years in a ‘big jail’, because they prevented me from staying with my family,” he said, referring to his self-imposed exile overseas. “I’ve suffered enough. If I were to suffer again in the smaller jail [in Thailand], it is okay,” the 73-year-old dollar billionaire said.

“It is not really the price I want to pay, but will I pay because I want to stay with my grandchildren. I should spend the rest of my life with my children and my grandchildren,” he added.

Thaksin faced eight criminal cases stemming from his tenure as prime minister between February 2001 and September 2006. He was sentenced to a total of 12 years in jail in four cases but the statute of limitations for one case which resulted in a two-year term has since expired.

He was acquitted in two cases while the remaining two cases are still under trial.

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Repeated remarks on ‘returning home’

This is not the first time Thaksin has talked about returning to Thailand. Last year, he repeatedly told fans of his Care Talk online chats with his Thailand-based lieutenants that he would “return home” by year-end.

The fugitive ex-premier, who is viewed as Pheu Thai’s patriarch, has adopted the name “Tony Woodsome” on social media.

At the beginning of 2022, Thaksin offered himself as a “New Year present to the Thai people, working for them and the country when I return”. He said he would only “whisper” to his youngest daughter Paetongtarn about the exact time of his return because it was a “great secret”, Later that year, he declared he would “rely on himself” for his return to Thailand, implying he was ready to serve his jail terms without a pardon.

Analysts described that move as a bid to help his daughter as she led Pheu Thai into the next election.

Former red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan – a Thaksin ally turned staunch critic – was unconvinced by the words of his ex-boss. He challenged Thaksin to return before the May 14election to prove that his move was not politically motivated.

“If you wait until after the election when ballots are already cast, what’s the guarantee that you will really return home? You should be fair to people who believe you. If you insist this has nothing to do with votes, you have to come back before May 14,” the activist said.

Pheu Thai could stand to benefit

Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, said Thaksin’s latest move is certain to bring a positive result for Pheu Thai. It could dilute criticism that Thaksin has fled Thai justice and that Pheu Thai is under his influence.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of King Prajadhipok Institute’s Office of Innovation for Democracy, agreed that Thaksin’s pledge to serve jail time in Thailand would benefit Pheu Thai. He said the ex-PM had previously undermined the party’s popularity by talking about his plan to “return home” amid speculation that he had done a political deal to avoid time behind bars.

Wanwichit reckons Thaksin’s declaration will help convince some skeptical supporters who have lost confidence in Pheu Thai and its Shinawatra backers. “Thaksin’s words will help to draw back votes from those supporters,” he said.

Thaksin’s move, Wanchiwit said, was aimed at testing the waters and opening the door to a landslide victory. Pheu Thai would find it easier to campaign for the election if voters perceived a gap between the party and Thaksin.

With Thaksin distancing himself from the party, Wanwichit said Pheu Thai would gain an advantage as it could focus on building an image of professionalism rather than patriarchal politics.

The analyst said Thaksin opted to “play this game” to help boost Pheu Thai’s chance of a landslide win by wooing liberal voters away from Move Forward, the other main opposition party. Pheu Thai is afraid of losing party-list votes to Move Forward, which would undermine its chance of a landslide, he explained.

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‘Thaksin’s crucial gamble’

However, Olarn warned that Thaksin’s move could backfire for Pheu Thai since it may give potential supporters who dislike the ex-PM second thoughts.

Also, the conservative camp led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is likely to unite more strongly in hope of preventing a landslide victory for Pheu Thai, he added.

Olarn also expects conservative forces to revive the “Thaksin specter” in a bid to foil his proxy party’s return to power.

“I think Thaksin was careless to make such an announcement. It may be his strategy, but it could backfire. Anti-Thaksin conservatives will join forces more strongly to prevent his return,” Olarn said.

“For Thaksin, this is a crucial gamble,” he declared.

No power, no return

Olarn reckoned Thaksin would only consider serving his jail term if Pheu Thai returns to power after an eight-year absence.

“The winner always gets the privilege. If Pheu Thai fails to form the next government, Thaksin will definitely not return,” the analyst said.

Wanwichit said that if Thaksin actually did return to serve his time with no strings attached, he would be doing Pheu Thai a favor by proving that he was not fleeing his punishment and returning as an ordinary person.

But the analyst agreed that Thaksin would not be back if Pheu Thai fails to return to government after the next election.

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk