Thai Public Health Ministry model predicts 40,000 COVID cases and 500 deaths per day soon if restrictions not obeyed
Thailand may see over 40,000 new COVID-19 infections and 500 deaths per day, peaking mid-September, if the current lockdown restrictions are not rigorously followed and enforced and without full cooperation from everyone, according to a projection by the Ministry of Public Health, based on a Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovery (SEIR) compartmental mathematical model.
Citing the model, advisor and spokesman for the Ministry, Dr. Rungruang Kitpati, said that only with strict enforcement of control measures and everyone’s total cooperation will the infections and fatalities slow down and, even then, not for the next 2 to 4 weeks.
More lives can be saved and fewer people will become infected if strict measures are in place and rigorously enforced, accompanied by accelerated COVID-19 screening and mass vaccinations.
As a COVID-19 resurgence has been reported in several countries, he said that restrictions to contain the spread of the contagion must be tightened.
He disclosed that, in Bangkok, 61.67% of the general population and 70% of the elderly have been inoculated, adding that, in August, 10 million more doses of vaccines will be arriving and people in other provinces will get access to more of them.
Administration of the first 1.5 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, donated by the United States, will commence on August 9th, 700,000 doses of which will be used as booster shots.
645,000 doses are to be distributed to 12 provincial “Dark Red” zones for people over 60, those afflicted with any of the seven underlying diseases, minors aged 12 and over, women who are at least 12 weeks pregnant and those weighing more than 100kgs.
150,000 does are intended for high-risk foreign residents in Thailand and students, or others who have to travel abroad. The remaining 5,000 does are reserved for research purposes.