11 July 2024

The Pheu Thai party is expected to win 139 House seats, with a 5% margin of error, in the May 14th general election, but no landslide, according to Super Poll.

Assistant Professor Noppadon Kannika, director of the Super Poll Research Office, said today (Friday) that the forecast is based on their 7th opinion poll of 14,332 respondents in various occupations who are over 18, using quantitative and qualitative research and net assessment from May 1st through May 5th.

He said that Super Poll gauged the opinions of respondents who have and don’t have cell phones, adding that 75.3 percent of about 37 million eligible voters intend to cast the ballots.

He forecast that no party will win a landslide, even the Pheu Thai party, which used to win the most seats in the north-eastern provinces and is expected to capture just about 20 seats this time, as the Move Forward party’s policies, which meet the aspirations of young people, will draw votes away from Pheu Thai.

The poll shows that the Pheu Thai party is expected to win 139 House seats, divided into 111 constituency seats and 28 party-list seats. The range is a minimum of 114 seats and a maximum of 164 seats.

In second place will be the Bhumjaithai party, which is expected to win 112 seats, divided into 96 constituency seats and 16 party-list seats. The range is a minimum of 87 seats and a maximum of 137 seats.

In third place will be the Move Forward party, which is expected to win 63 House seats, divided into 40 constituency seats and 23 party-list seats. The range is a minimum of 38 seats and a maximum of 88 seats.

In 4th place is the Palang Pracharath party, which is expected to win 53 House seats, divided into 53 constituency seats and 8 party-list seats. The range is a minimum of 36 seats and a maximum of 86 seats.

5th place goes to the Democrat party, which is expected to win 49 House seats, divided into 44 constituency seats and 5 party-list seats. The range being a minimum of 24 seats and a maximum of 74 seats.

In 6th place is the United Thai Nation party, which is expected to win 46 House seats, divided into 35 constituency seats and 11 party-list seats. The range is a minimum of 21 seats and a maximum of 71 seats.

In 7th place are the other parties which are expected to win 30 House seats, divided into 21 constituency seats and 9 party-list seats. The range being a minimum of 5 seats and a maximum of 55 seats.

Noppadon said Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat and Bhumjaithai party leader Anutin Charnvirakul are neck-and-neck in the race to become prime minister, but 30% of the respondents to the poll say they are ready to change their minds, while 15% say they are undecided.

Meanwhile, Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, a scholar and lecturer at Harvard University, said there are four post-election possible scenarios.

The first is that the conservative camp will form the government, with their 126 House seats plus the support of 250 senators, he said adding, however, that it will depend on how the camp is able to swing public votes to their side during the final week of campaigning.

The second scenario is that the Pheu Thai party will be the core party in forming a government of the progressive camp, said Kriengsak, as he dismissed the possibility that the party will form a one-party government.

He also said that it may be difficult for Pheu Thai to join with the Move Forward party to form a coalition government because the latter may demand too many ministerial portfolios.

The third scenario involves some parties being dissolved before or after the election, while the fourth scenario sees both the conservative and the progressive camps being unable to form a government, resulting in unrest and probably intervention by the military.

Kriengsak warned that, in order to avoid the third and fourth scenarios, no party should try to win a landslide.