The debate on whether Paetongtarn Shinawatra could participate in the Cabinet swearing-in ceremony as the new cultural minister is heated and remains inconclusive. But it is just the tip of the mega iceberg her entire government ship is heading nonchalantly towards.
If the Constitutional Court rules, days from now, that she is ethically unfit to be prime minister, the cultural minister debate would fade into insignificance.
All sorts of legal and constitutional questions will follow such a ruling. Her case, experts believe, is different from the Prayut Chan-o-cha controversy, which involved charges that he stayed prime minister longer than constitutionally allowed.
Simply put, no judge questioned Prayut’s ethics when he appointed his Cabinet’s members. He was accused of overstaying his constitutional tenure. It was what he did “after” the contentious “eight-year” period that would have raised questions.
To add to that, Prayut survived the court’s scrutiny. All these meant all the Cabinet appointees needed not worry.
If Paetongtarn is ruled to have been unethical, her Cabinet members, old and new, will have to be very afraid.
She will definitely lose the premiership if the court finds her unethical. The ensuing question is “Since when has she been unethical?”.
In other words: Was an ethical Paetongtarn appointed her first Cabinet and made the latest reshuffle, or were they products of someone being unethical from the start?
Questions like these will be asked. Petitions will be filed. There will be more uncertainties, speculation and rumours. (As if there aren’t enough of them already these days.)
Ethical charges against her stemmed from a leaked phone conversation that prompted criticism that her judgement when it comes to Cambodia may not be made in the best interest of Thailand.
Which Cabinet members are, were and will be involved with Cambodia? Basically everyone.
For example, the commerce minister is in charge of trade with the neighbouring country. The energy minister keeps an eye on energy sources in disputed areas. The defence minister looks after border security.
The transport minister makes decisions on border communications. The interior minister is responsible for immigration and crackdown on gambling and alleged networks of scammers.
And there must be education or science cooperation projects between the two countries.
There will be other serious questions as well in case of a “guilty” verdict. Was the Digital Wallet programme overseen by an unethical prime minister? Was the Entertainment Complex bill prepared under an unethical guidance?
Budgets have been rearranged. State money has been given out. Bills have been written by her Cabinet.
All these are legal questions that will follow a Paetongtarn demise. There are political ones, too. To start with, who will replace her as prime minister?
Candidates in the current government are either physically unfit or legally vulnerable. Apart from that, after the Bhumjaithai Party left the coalition, Pheu Thai only has small parties as partners.
It’s not easy in the opposition bloc, either, although Bhumjaithai’s arrival has boosted its parliamentary strength to just over 10 votes shy of the government’s.
The main opposition party and Thailand’s biggest political camp, the People’s Party, is known to harbour an ideology that contrasts sharply with Bhumjaithai’s. They are like oil and water, ending up at the same place by accident, not by choice.
Although Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul smilingly held hands with his People’s Party counterpart Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut at an opposition meeting this week, making many think about the unthinkable, a Blue-Orange mix remains a far-fetched scenario.
But will there eventually be a secret Blue-Orange deal, in which the People’s Party throws its weight behind Anutin for once, and if he successfully becomes prime minister, he will dissolve the House of Representatives in just a few months’ time?
That’s not totally impossible but it’s unlikely. Will “Prime Minister Anutin” dissolve the House to increase the chances of an ideological rival implementing an agenda he doesn’t want?
Meanwhile, Pheu Thai and the People’s Party are two male lions who can’t live in the same cave, but the biggest reason against reunion may be legal, not political.
Pheu Thai is Shinawatra through and through and an “Unethical!” verdict could make things too complicated for the People’s Party, already saddled with legal issues itself.
The People’s Party’s wisest choice should be wait for a House dissolution, regardless of who initiates it or when it comes about, and hope that the candidates can score an unprecedentedly-huge victory, big enough to form a single-party government.
That would prevent the headache of fighting over the Finance Ministry and arguing pros and cons of the Entertainment Complex, the big issues that wait for a Pheu Thai-People’s Party re-alliance like a big dead end.
What is Thailand’s wisest choice? Nobody knows.
