Pita Limjaroenrat’s vow to go to Government House is either a cryptic comment or an off-the-cuff remark that did not mean much. What is certain is that if he was alluding to the chief executive post, it can be a long and winding journey.
The first bump on the new road will be next week’s court ruling on whether Article 112 can be spoken of during an election campaign as imperfect and better off amended. While what the court says may not immediately affect Pita, future consequences can be highly volatile.
This is why Move Forward has not celebrated too much and too early. Last Wednesday’s Constitutional Court verdict was clear-cut in saying that an election candidate’s illegal possession of shares is wrong, no matter how little and regardless of whether those shares concerns inheritance.
Pita survived because iTV’s contractual right to operate TV business had been stopped by the rightful authorities. While there was big, documented evidence of the termination, there was no tangible evidence (such as licenses) of iTV operating other media businesses.
In other words, the iTV case is lot more straightforward than Article 112, which has to do with cultural and ideological thinking, hence a bigger potential for the ruling to go either way.
(There is one possible controversy regarding iTV, though, which concerns intangible media-like operations, such as popular Facebook pages, Instagram influencers or massive X (Twitter) networks. Yet Pita’s opponents pointing this out would be seen as grasping at straws.)
The next bump can even be bigger. Even after the Senate’s provisional power to join the House of Representatives in selecting the prime minister ends months from now, the current size of Move Forward means the party still requires Pheu Thai’s full support for Pita to get the premiership.
A lot will depend on Pheu Thai which will have many things to think about. Firstly, what will happen to Thaksin Shinawatra if Move Forward is in the government and Pita is the prime minister? Secondly, isn’t Move Forward attacking the Bt500 billion borrowing bill, which is crucial to the digital wallet plan? Thirdly, Move Forward wouldn’t accept the ruling-party status if it can’t get the Finance Ministry from Pheu Thai, would it?
And this second bump might also be related to the first. If next week’s court ruling is not in favour of Move Forward, Pheu Thai, which has experienced harsh legal and constitutional consequences of sensitive actions, may choose to stay away or get a good excuse to stay away.
The size of the second bump may depend on Pheu Thai’s long-term visions. If it sees Move Forward as a frenemy it can’t live without, Pita’s journey will be easier. If it considers Move Forward a full-scale threat, Pita will need to wait for the next election and try to make his party big enough to do it alone.
Many Thais think it’s better to be “a dog’s head” than “a lion’s tail”. Pheu Thai’s choices are down to a simple question of whether it wants to play second fiddle to Move Forward or be the “biggest man” in a coalition full of small parties.
As for Move Forward, patience can be a great virtue. In other words, waiting for the next election may be a better option than trying to woo back Pheu Thai. The biggest party’s shocking victory last May has overshadowed the pleasant fact that its losses in many constituencies were not big at all. Several losing Move Forward candidates required just a few thousand more votes to turn things around.
Pita has said his party would pay more attention to the zones where it lost last time. It’s a proper thing to do which could bear fruit, allowing Move Forward to shake off Pheu Thai that seems to be having a serious popularity problem while carrying the Thaksin baggage.
If Move Forward, which should have Pita return as its leader shortly, decides to go for the slow-but-sure option, it will have to avoid the kind of scandals that rocked the party over the past few months. While such issues as a certain senior activist mistreating younger ones and party members facing sexual allegations are small ripples in a big pond when a political party is popular, they can be big waves when it is not.
This is assuming that no more big accident happens to Move Forward from now on. The iTV case going to the Constitutional Court is one big evidence that such accidents cannot be ruled out. Like when the premiership was snatched from Pita’s hold last year, problems, hopes, risks and dilemmas are once again getting intertwined and time-sensitive.
Pita surviving the first court battle may only make the uncertainties of Thai politics more uncertain. Maybe Move Forward and Pheu Thai have drifted too far apart to be reunited. Or maybe Pheu Thai has come to realisation that working with former enemies is too difficult.
Either way, the yarn ball does not look less messed-up. To put it in another way, Pita’s journey to Government House will remain turbulent.
By Tulsathit Taptim
