The speed with which the Thai-Cambodian standoff escalates is tragic and astonishing, so much so that one theory about why it happened in the first place can be ruled out.
That theory portrayed the trouble as a smokescreen to distract the Thai public, who were previously focused on the deteriorating local image of the Paetongtarn government. Advocates of this theory believed a surge of nationalism, more often than not, has helped politicians in domestic trouble everywhere before.
Cambodia’s help was needed in this theory, which sounded plausible at first, given the very close relationship between the Shinawatras and the Cambodian political elites.
It was an outrageous and inflammatory theory, but believers pointed to convincing examples. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zenlensky and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu faced severe local woes before wars turned them into military leaders who were more or less heroic domestically.
But then a leak came from Cambodia about a private phone call between Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Phnom Penh’s Hun Sen, whom she called “Uncle” and, in that controversial conversation, told about Thai military moves that she could not be totally happy about.
The leak followed a curious Hun Sen statement demanding a show of gratitude from the Thai red shirts, who were, of course, led by her father Thaksin. Then there were the bedroom pictures.
The Shinawatras-Hun Sen ties were blown away. As if what he did was not enough to doom the Thai clan, Hun Sen additionally accused Thaksin of making private criticism of the highest Thai institution and forwarding Thai Cabinet classified information to Cambodia.
This is not a “disguised” friendly move getting out of hand. This is pure grudge.
Both countries downgrading diplomatic ties and border fighting upping its scale with sad consequences confirm it is serious. People including children were killed and injured. To add to that, the ongoing situation increases the domestic heat on the Shinawatras.
How can a government led by many figures who used to be close politically to Cambodia and who have turned into its enemies be trusted to lead military and diplomatic fights against Phnom Penh? The conservatives are asking.
That question has been compounded by the fact that the Paetongtarn government has been crippled in many ways. Paetongtarn and her father are facing court cases. She has been suspended as prime minister. Their commitment to national sovereignty is never their strongest point.
So, the Shinawatras are fighting two wars: One against Cambodia and the other against domestic critics, doubters and downright enemies.
Casualties increase Thai anger on Cambodia but a nagging sentiment critical of the Bangkok leaders is also prevalent: Look what “a friend of yours” has done.
Have the ruling Shinawatras done something Hun Sen did not like?
Something such as initiating the Entertainment Complex, maybe, which would allow limited gambling and could lead to further deregulation of betting? Or crackdowns on lucrative scamming networks operating at the border?
Or both? Or is Hun Sen trying to divert Cambodians’ attention from the problems battling his own clan?
On May 1, America’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a bureau of the US Treasury, proposed a rule to sever Cambodia’s Huione Group’s access to the American financial system over its alleged role in laundering funds from cyber heists and online scams.
The move followed extensive suspicions and investigations (taking place outside Cambodia) linking the politically-connected firm to money laundering networks tied to transnational crime groups in Southeast Asia dealing in online scams and cyber theft operations attributed to North Korea, allegedly.
Hun To, a cousin of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, is a director of a Huione company. Is there a close link between the Huione group and the Cambodian government? This was an explosive question, which, if the answer is “Yes”, might require diversion tactics.
On May 28, a clash occurred between Thai and Cambodian soldiers stationed at Chong Bok. Thai Media reports said the Thai military seemed to noticed movement of Cambodian troops in the area. Cambodian media highlighted the Cambodian side’s reported damage and death.
Days afterwards, a Thai Facebook page asked everyone to check the timeline regarding FinCen and Huione. The page directly linked the border problem to FinCen’s initiative.
Huione faces next to zero scrutiny in Cambodia, especially now, when nationalism is surging thanks to the border situation, with bilateral talks, global arbitrary pushes and uses of landmines and military weapons swinging back and forth.
Most analysts believe there must be a hidden motive in the ongoing and spiraling saga. Disputed areas are real, but they are also age-old problems that are not supposed to flare up this way, so unexpectedly, unnaturally and tragically.
And frankly speaking, it would have been extremely foolish for the Thai side to start a border conflict that could go out of control, considering so much trouble besetting every single element of the entire national apparatus already.
To be fair to Cambodia, though, its painful political history, plagued with massive deaths, betrayals, shifting alliances and large-scale
displacement, demands cunning and ruthless leadership. The country’s politicians grew up learning not to trust anyone and striving to survive at all costs.
To add to that, Cambodia’s relations with Thailand have never been simple for centuries. Imperial and colonial conflicts led to everlasting territorial disputes. Modern-day global politics further complicated bilateral ties, with the Khmer Rouge, Vietnamese invasion, refugees and etc putting Thailand in a very awkward position regardless of whom it supported.
Then there were the Shinawatras seeking refuge when they were on the run politically. Thais would also have demanded gratitude if they were Hun Sen.
It’s a bilateral history alternating strangely between excessive friendship, over-the-top competitions from the bottom up and extreme knee-jerk reactions.
The pictures of the bedroom, Thailand’s F16s dropping bombs at the border and destroyed, smouldering structures are surreal, although they were waiting to happen nonetheless.
Tulsathit Taptim
