In the well-known movie, The Perfect Storm, at least the fishing boat sails under a clear blue sky initially. Paetongtarn Shinawatra may have had her only sunny days already, and is immediately heading into a pitch-black turbulence.
Analysts rating the new prime minister’s survival chances all say it’s a matter of “when” and not “if”. Most are predicting the end might come quickly, swifter than Srettha Thavisin’s downfall even.
Factors that make them think so are abundant. The following brings together questions, speculation and possible answers regarding Thailand’s youngest prime minister who, with good makeup and teen dresses, might have to produce an ID card while entering liquor stores in certain countries:
Was her rise part of a Pheu Thai conspiracy against Srettha? Most likely not. This is not a time to prop her up at the man’s expense. There were even unconfirmed reports about Thaksin Shinawatra and Khunying Potjaman Damapong not seeing eye to eye on Paetongtarn’s political ascendancy.
Many people thought Srettha’s doom was the result of an elaborate plot to “plant” Pichit Chuenban in his Cabinet. Pichit’s nomination did come from the real powers in Pheu Thai, but he was most certainly not a setup. The Shinawatras, like them or loathe them, have a tradition of repaying debt of gratitude, and Pichit’s Cabinet appointment looks very much like that kind of repayment.
Another reason why Paetongtarn seems like a last resort rather than the ultimate and ulterior motive is the health of Chaikasem Nittisiri, the other prime ministerial candidate of Pheu Thai. For all the public claims about his fitness, he walks like Joe Biden but does not have the same mechanism to divert public attention.
High risks associated with Digital Wallet must also be taken into account. This is not a time to throw her into Digital Wallet waters which are strewn with possible rebellion and legal as well as constitutional booby-traps.
The same can be said about Thaksin with all the existing and possible legal troubles, as well as attempts to bring Yingluck Shinawatra back from exile. It’s simply easier to deal with both issues under a different prime minister.
Is she ready? No. But as they say, political leadership nowadays is more “collective” than ever before. Even in America, where much of decision-making used to be associated with the presidency, a network of powers beneath the surface, media and social media manipulation, financial backing and groups with vested interests are having a bigger and bigger say in national affairs.
While Paetongtarn’s experiences will not enable her to cope with the worrisome local economy, cutthroat domestic politics and highly-volatile global situations, she will be aided by more seasoned teammates.
Will she survive? Ordinarily, the line between “ready” and “survive” is thin but clear. An unprepared political leader can last long whereas a veteran can meet his or her doom early.
In Paetongtarn’s case, though, inexperience can be compounded by family matters, political polarisation that will put everything she does under a microscope and the fact that an old ally has become her enemy and current partners were her former foes.
In other words, most, if not all, analysts believe she will not stay long at Government House.
What can she do to exceed expectations? She has to tone down Digital Wallet considerably, make Yingluck stay abroad and strictly observe a hands-off policy when it comes to Thaksin’s legal problems. These are extremely-difficult things to do.
Remarkably altering Digital Wallet may be the easiest of the three. Shelving Yingluck’s possible return can also be done. But keeping Thaksin at arm’s length will be almost impossible.
Even how Thaksin was dressed while congratulating her appointment as the prime minister can become a big legal trouble.
Are there other booby traps? The Constitutional Court’s verdict in the Srettha case opens the door for any “integrity” complaints that could have disastrous consequences. Paetongtarn’s education backgrounds, for example, can be scrutinised.
Scrutiny into the distant past might not be awfully impactful but it can affect her morale and image greatly. While it may not be legally devastating, it can wreak political havoc especially in the current environment.
Will she inspire big changes in Thai politics? When her first Cabinet lineup is announced, everyone will know. Government formation is an occasion for all the traditional scourges of politics to show up, be it horse-trading carried out in complete disregard for public interest or the need to satisfy powerful figures in parties, again, at the expense of popular benefits.
The jury is still out on Paetongtarn on this particular question but it won’t take long for everyone to learn the definite answer. Actually, genuine political reform takes place not when one is winning or has won, but when one does it knowing that he or she can lose because of it.
Thailand’s catch-22 situation is that Paetongtarn’s survival might be at the expense of what should have been, and her early exit can lead to disruptive and chaotic politics as well.
Will she break the loop or is she a part of it? This is related to some of the previous questions. Going with the flow means condemning Thailand to a vicious circle but swimming against the tide may lead to a swift yet heroic death.
The answer is hopeful rather than realistic or rational. It’s that her options remain open.
