Amid intense speculation about the Shinawatras, two other political developments might have escaped public attention this week. And they concern the People’s Party.
How “major” are the developments? At least one analyst thinks they are tantalizingly indicative.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, has insisted that the House of Representatives’ smooth passage of a bill seeking to rename the Crown Property Bureau while basically keeping its authority and jurisdictions, and how the Bhumjaithai Party leader is speaking so cordially of top “Orange” politicians, suggest a wind of change may be blowing.
He was giving his analysis on a Channel 8 programme posted on YouTube, making his two interviewers’ jaws drop in the process. They countered him with assertions that the “Orange” fandom would never let the People’s Party change track, and that the party itself was ideologically unbendable.
But he responded with a few good points. First, the Thaksin factor will blow up soon so the uneasy Pheu Thai-conservatives relationship will have to come to an end. Second, the People’s Party may be already and subtly softening its stand.
“When was the last time you heard the party say we would change Article 112?” he asked. As for the fans, he said they were all like spectators watching a football match who think a player should pass the ball one way whereas the player eventually passes it the other way.
“The party is that player,” he said. “It and the fan can and will have totally different perspectives at crucial moments.”
(To add to his point, we have never heard the People’s Party say they would never join hands with Bhumjaithai and Prayut-less United Thai Nation, either.)
Third, opposition talks and government walks. If you want to implement agendas, you have to be in the government. Of course, the People’s Party can choose to be patient, all the while dreaming of a massive election landslide that would allow it to do it unilaterally, but that is a big dream strewn with political and constitutional obstacles.
This scenario is a sudden marriage, but it’s also the least likely.
The narrowest and almost impossible channel through which the Blue and Orange can come together is the prime minister’s resignation leading to a wholesale change in government formation. Pheu Thai will not give in without a fight.
A likelier scenario is a House dissolution which would set everything back to zero. This Pheu Thai card, however, could lead to a situation where the People’s Party wins again, and, without the Article 112 stubbornness that put it in the opposition the last time, it can lead a new coalition government with Bhumjaithai and probably United Thai Nation, Thanaporn said.
Key things to watch is the on-going senatorial attempt to quickly finalise the setups of “independent agencies” that play a very influential role in Thai political development, and what happens to the Entertainment Complex plan.
The Senate is Blue and the Entertainment Complex is Red. Pheu Thai allegedly aims to disrupt the senatorial process by drumming up the electoral “conspiracy” charges and investigation, which the party tries to direct and control. Bhumjaithai, meanwhile, has Entertainment Complex as its hostage.
Both issues - the senatorial “conspiracy” case and Entertainment Complex - should head in the directions that please both Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai for the stormy relationship to continue. If not, it will not end well.
Bad news (not necessarily bad when the People’s Party is concerned) is that there are other factors, too. The Medical Council development and the Yingluck ruling are adding a great strain on the fragile relationship.
Thailand has tried almost every political formula. A stand-alone Yellow (Blue) rule used to be attempted. It failed. A Red reign ended up as badly. A Yellow-Red government is also stuttering terribly currently.
An Orange-Red government is impossible for four main unsolved questions: Who will control the Finance Ministry, what about Digital Wallet and what about the Entertainment Complex?
Last but not least, how will a People’s Party government treat the Shinawatras, who either show disrespect to the laws or are political victims, whom the party is perceived as fighting for?
A single-party Orange government is highly unlikely and even if it happens, it will not be workable.
This leaves an unthinkable Blue-Orange union, which can take the four questions out of the equation. (As for the fourth question, anything can be blamed on the conservatives.)
As laughably incredible as such an alliance may sound, ones may consider what Thanaporn said repeatedly (His fourth point to be exact): if Sondhi Limthongkul (the former Yellow flagbearer) can hug Jatuporn Prompan (former Red chief warrior) wholeheartedly in public, anything may be just a matter of time.
By Tulsathit Taptim
