The new Trump administration is expected to maintain the same approach to the Myanmar quagmire as its predecessor, according to former senior US official Scott Marciel.
Marciel, who served as the US ambassador to Yangon from 2016 to 2020, stated that U.S. policy will largely depend on the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and Congress, which could advocate for continuity and increased support for the people of Myanmar.
In an interview with Irrawaddy Magazine, Marciel noted that implementing the Burma Act would depend significantly on Rubio’s preferences. He cautioned that "in the US, there is now more of an 'America First' mentality, questioning why we are helping other countries when we have problems of our own."
The Biden administration enacted the Burma Act in 2023 to provide “technical support and non-lethal assistance” to the National Unity Government (NUG) and people’s defense forces. It also offers aid to pro-democracy and humanitarian organizations operating from Thailand and investigates human rights violations by Myanmar’s junta.
At the recent ASEAN foreign ministers’ retreat in Langkawi, the bloc expressed disappointment with Naypyidaw’s implementation of its five-point consensus. In the Malaysian chairman’s statement, it was noted that "minimum progress" had been made in fulfilling the ASEAN peace plan.
ASEAN continues to push for a ceasefire and political dialogue among all stakeholders as part of its efforts to end the four-year-old conflict.
The former envoy also questioned the motives of Myanmar’s military junta in scheduling an election, which he believes will lack credibility given the current situation.
He added that the people of Myanmar have been unwilling to accept military rule since the coup in February 2021.
Marciel further observed that although Trump does not appear to prioritize human rights or advocate for strong US engagement in promoting democracy, he believes that the broader U.S. political system will remain supportive of the Myanmar people's aspirations for democracy, human rights, justice, and opportunity.
