Thailand’s latest move to restore peace in neighboring Myanmar is unlikely to achieve any breakthroughs, as the government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra lacks a comprehensive and effective plan or the political will, according to experts.
In an attempt to ease the ongoing crisis and restore peace, Thailand hosted a series of meetings with Myanmar, its immediate neighboring countries, and some members of ASEAN on December 19-20 in Bangkok. The aim was to exchange views on the situation and explore ways to implement the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus.
The crisis in Myanmar after a military coup in February 2021 poses a security threat to Thailand that requires deep knowledge and an effective plan to deal with, Nipat Thonglek, the vice minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, said.
“The conflict in Myanmar has been described as the longest-running civil war in the world, which has mutated from its original purpose of fighting for ethnic groups into a war for profit. Earning a livelihood has become the primary focus,” Nipat, a retired general, told a recent seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic Policy (CSP) think tank.
The bureaucracy dominant panel, recently set up by the government, would not be an effective instrument for dealing with the tough challenges caused by the crisis in neighboring Myanmar, he said.
He referred to an ad hoc committee set up by Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai in October to handle the Myanmar crisis and its implications for Thailand’s security matters.
It is the second such panel picked by the Pheu Thai Party-led administration to integrate government agencies to deal with the situation in Myanmar. The first one, chaired by then foreign minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara, was set up in April but became dormant after the end of Srettha Thavisin's administration in August.
The new panel, chaired by Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa, includes permanent secretaries of the foreign, defense, and interior ministries, the head of the national intelligence agency, chiefs of the Thai armed forces, the Army, and the police.
The most fundamental obstacle hindering Thailand's policy implementation with regard to Myanmar is the "redundancy" in the operations of Thai government agencies, academic Lalita Hanwong from Kasetsart University said at the same seminar.
Each relevant agency has similar or overlapping missions, but instead of coordinating their efforts, they work in disparate ways and directions, she said.
Unreliable ASEAN
Nipat said Thailand should not rely too much on ASEAN to handle the situation in Myanmar, stating that it "feels like there’s very little concern for us”, suggesting that Thailand focus on its own efforts rather than relying on ASEAN for support.
Lalita said that Thailand has many bilateral mechanisms to deal with Myanmar, notably the High-Level Committee (HLC) currently co-chaired by Thai Supreme Commander Songwit Noonpakdee and his Myanmar counterpart Min Aung Hlaing.
“It [HLC] serves as a shortcut to accelerate the advancement of Thailand's strategy and positioning on the Myanmar issue,” Lalita, an expert on Myanmar affairs, told the seminar.
Foreign Minister Maris joined a meeting with his ASEAN counterparts from Laos, Indonesia, and Malaysia on December 20 to explore ways to implement the five-point consensus adopted in April 2021 in a bid to restore peace and deliver humanitarian assistance to strife-torn Myanmar.
The informal meeting, known as Trioka plus as per past ASEAN chair Indonesia, the current chair Laos, and next chair Malaysia sitting at the core of the gathering, yielded no concrete outcomes.
Maris told reporters after the meeting that all ASEAN members continue to adhere to the Five-Point Consensus and hope to see progress or positive signals in resolving the Myanmar crisis. However, ultimately, the direction of any decision depends on Myanmar itself—or to put it bluntly, “No one knows Myanmar better than Myanmar itself,” he said.
Before the ASEAN informal meeting, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said he would appoint former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as an informal adviser to the ASEAN Chair when Malaysia resumes the position at the beginning of January.
Thaksin's role remains unclear, but it was widely speculated that Anwar planned to leverage his connections with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and some armed ethnic groups to facilitate peace efforts in Myanmar.
Thaksin’s earlier attempt to mediate peace in April fell short, as stakeholders including the Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party, Kachin National Organization, and the Restoration Council of Shan State cold-shouldered his initiative.
A CSP strategic paper proposed during the seminar suggested that ASEAN should have a standing special envoy since the rotating envoy system resulted in fragmented efforts and a lack of sustained engagement with Myanmar’s stakeholders.
Rather than relying on the policy of the rotating ASEAN chair as at present, the standing envoy should have a full mandate to work as the representative of ASEAN as a whole with a fixed term, former foreign vice minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said at the seminar. The seasoned diplomat Sihasak is a founding member of the CSP think tank.
Complex border
A day before the informal ASEAN meeting, Thailand hosted the Six-Country Informal Consultation that brought ministers from Bangladesh, China, India, Laos, and Myanmar to exchange views on the common challenges of border security and transnational crimes such as drug smuggling, human trafficking, and scam cities.
There was no concrete outcome from the meeting beyond a promise to forge cooperation. “Every country agreed to elevate cooperation on these matters, especially exchanging information and coordination on law enforcement,” Maris said.
Foreign Minister Than Swe of Myanmar’s State Administration Council (SAC) junta was invited to the meeting with a bold political purpose but not specifically on the border issue. He instead updated on the political roadmap of Myanmar and preparations for the elections next year. The SAC intends to invite election observers from abroad, such as from neighboring countries, according to Maris.
All neighboring countries have a shared interest in seeing a peaceful, stable, and unified Myanmar through a Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned approach, he said. They urged all parties in the country to stop violence and engage in dialogue in order to find peaceful solutions, he added.
Than Swe informed the meeting that the SAC has opened the door for dialogue to find peaceful solutions through a political process, according to Maris.
Formal engagement with the SAC alone would never produce effective measures for border security arrangements as armed dissidents are mostly active in the border areas. Many groups such as the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the United Wa State Army have close relations with China.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s ties with the Karen National Union and Karenni National Progressive Party have been fraying as compared to previous Thai governments, which had a close connection with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's military), according to a security source.
The CSP strategic paper suggested that Thailand engage constructively with all stakeholders and armed groups as well as utilize advanced technology such as AI-based surveillance systems for effective border control.
