Thailand’s new deal with the United States on rare-earth cooperation has sparked a debate among local analysts, who warn that Bangkok may not be equipped yet to navigate the geopolitical stakes or environmental fallout tied to the high-stakes mineral industry.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and US President Donald Trump inked the memorandum of understanding (MOU) on October 26 on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, aimed at diversifying the critical mineral supply chain and promoting investment.
The pact aims to strengthen cooperation, promote trade and investment in rare-earth exploration, extraction, processing and refining, as well as in recycling and recovery.
The signing of the MOU came as a big surprise for people in Thailand. The deal on the crucial mineral was kept under wraps for the past months due to fears of public resistance over American influence and transboundary environmental impact.
Prime Minister Anutin explained to the public that the MOU does not contain anything to be worried about, contrary to what some people believe.
There were still many kinds of minerals that could be used in manufacturing to lower production costs and improve product quality, he said, explaining the reason for signing the deal.
The MOU clearly specifies that everything must be conducted with fairness, in accordance with the principles of good governance, regulations, and Thai law, without violating the Constitution, he said.
These are general conditions that are acceptable and the main objective of the MOU is to seek cooperation under Thai law, the PM said.
“Importantly, the MOU is not legally binding — and when, in due course, it is no longer deemed beneficial, either party may terminate it without needing the consent of the other side,” Anutin assured.
China the biggest player
Rare earths are at the heart of the modern world, emerging as a key raw material in a wide range of industries — from clean energy technologies such as solar panels and batteries for electric vehicles to semiconductors or computer chips that power electronic devices used in defense systems.
Various agencies indicated that China was the biggest player in terms of production, supply chain and technology concerning critical minerals, notably rare earths.
Data from the US Geological Survey shows that China accounted for 270,000 tonnes or 69.23 per cent of global production in 2024, among the highest of all critical minerals needed for green and digital technologies.
An International Energy Agency report shows that China is the dominant refiner for 19 out of 20 critical minerals, with an average 70 per cent share, and will still hold 76 per cent of rare-earth refining and 52 per cent of mining by 2035.
The US lags behind at number two with 45,000 tonnes, followed by Myanmar 31,000 tonnes, Australia 13,000 tonnes, and Thailand, which imported from Australia and Africa to refine and enhance, in fifth place with 13,000 tonnes.
Most of the rare-earth mines in neighboring Myanmar were controlled by ethnic armed organizations such as the United Wa State Army and the National Democratic Alliance Army, which have deep connections with China, according to a Stimson Center report.
Between 2017 and 2024, Myanmar exported over 290,000 tonnes of rare earth material to China, with a total value exceeding US$4.2 billion, 85 per cent of which was generated after the 2021 coup, it said.
The year 2023 was particularly productive, with exports of $1.4 billion. Myanmar has become China’s most important external supplier of heavy rare earth elements, accounting for more than 60 per cent of import value each year in recent years.
Geo-political concerns
Suebsakun Kidnukorn, a lecturer at Mae Fah Luang University, questioned whether the US wanted Thailand to serve as a processing base for critical minerals.
The MOU mentions the entire process — from exploration and resource assessment to processing and recycling — which reflects that the US is looking at the whole picture of the supply chain, not merely trading in raw materials, he said at a recent seminar.
Suebsakun observed that the structure of relationships in the series of US MOUs forms a single regional supply chain, noting that the picture becomes clear when Australia supplies minerals to Malaysia, which signed a similar MOU with the US on the same day as Thailand.
Malaysia subsequently passes them on to Thailand, and Thailand sends them to Japan—illustrating an interconnected production chain, he said.
Suebsakun argued that the separate MOUs involving the US, Thailand, Malaysia and Japan are part of a single strategic framework, not merely bilateral agreements.
Rather, they constitute a systemic network designed to establish resource routes that reduce dependence on China and turn Southeast Asian countries into production bases within the global strategic mineral supply chain, he said.
Although these agreements are presented as technical cooperation, in reality they represent a reconfiguration of supply chains that places Thailand in the role of a contract manufacturer, rather than a technology owner, according to Suebsakun.
Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow acknowledged that the signing of the rare earth MOU with the US has drawn criticism. There have been questions as to whether Thailand had acted too hastily, played into Washington’s hands, or risked upsetting the balance in its relations with China.
Sihasak asserted that his government was focused on Thailand’s national interests. The MOU concerned cooperation in various areas that would help strengthen Thailand’s capacity to develop critical mineral production and enter the supply chain, which was not an easy sector for Thailand to access, he explained.
Thailand itself determines the conditions for cooperation, he said.
Justifying the clause that stipulated the US would have first access, he said Thailand had agreed to it as it was satisfied with it.
Environmental risks
Thailand has been suffering from mining pollution caused by rare-earth and gold mining in Myanmar’s Shan State, which are contaminating the Kok, Sai, and Ruak rivers in the northern provinces of Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai.
According to a report by the Stimson Center, there are as many as 58 rare-earth mining sites in the basins of the Ruak and Kok rivers, 44 of which were established between 2022 and 2025.
Recent research by academics from northern Thai universities found that the water quality in the Kok, Sai, and Ruak rivers contain arsenic, cadmium, and lead at levels exceeding safety standards, raising serious concerns about potential threats to public health and agricultural areas.
Pianporn Deetes, the executive director of the Rivers and Rights Foundation, urged all stakeholders to pay more attention to the environmental impact of rare-earth mining in Myanmar.
“We must ensure that every actor across the entire critical minerals supply chain from upstream to downstream shares responsibility,” she said.
It is essential to guarantee that the minerals are sourced through processes that respect environmental standards and human rights, she said.
“The claim of low costs should never be used as an excuse to allow mine workers to stir chemical mixtures barehanded while wearing flip-flops, when in developed countries such processes require advanced technology and strict safety measures,” Pianporn said at a recent seminar.
