Pheu Thai and Move Forward, who once seemed perfect allies as Thailand’s two largest opposition parties, are now in a fierce fight to lure votes from the same voter base.
As campaigns for the upcoming general election kicked off, Pheu Thai Party immediately began calling for its supporters to give it a landslide victory on May 14. Its ambitious plan is to form a single-party government.
This aim reflects the fact that Pheu Thai does not consider Move Forward Party a potential ally. Instead, it sees its former opposition partner as a “must-kill” competitor.
“Pheu Thai thinks Move Forward is luring away its previously loyal supporters. After all, these two parties share the same stance – standing in opposition to General Prayut Chan-o-cha,” said Olarn Thinbangtieo from Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law.
Trading punches
Most pre-election surveys show Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a Pheu Thai PM candidate and the youngest daughter of fugitive former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, is the most popular choice for Thailand’s next leader. However, Bangkok polls show her trailing behind Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat as preferred next PM.
Apart from their parties’ political stance, both Paetongtarn, 36, and Pita, 42, portray themselves as new-generation politicians in contrast to conservative senior politicians in government.
Hence, the two parties have been sparring fiercely to sway liberal, pro-democracy voters to their side.
“When Thai politicians attack one another, they make scathing comments and rally supporters against their targets,” Olarn said. “We are now seeing such behavior on the stage as well as on social media.”
Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, a co-founder of the Future Forward Party that was dissolved and reincarnated as Move Forward, has openly questioned Pheu Thai Party’s claim it will tackle the legacy of the 2014 coup. Prayut has ruled the country as PM since leading the coup as Army chief.
Pheu Thai bolstered its anti-coup claims by adding Chaikasem Nitisiri, a vocal critic of putsches and the lese-majeste law, to its list of PM candidates alongside Paetongtarn and Srettha Thavisin. Critics accuse the Prayut government of wielding the lese majeste law as a weapon against pro-democracy protesters.
However, Move Forward’s Piyabutr insists that Pheu Thai has done little for the pro-democracy cause.
“Stop boasting. I’m fed up. Your party had the parliamentary majority before but did nothing. That’s the reason why I co-founded Future Forward Party,” he wrote on Twitter.
Rumors are also rife that Thaksin has done a deal with Palang Pracharath Party leader General Prawit Wongsuwan to share power after the election.
Prawit became PM General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s deputy after the last general election, held five years after the coup.
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Pheu Thai, Move Forward’s chances
Future Forward was the third biggest party in Parliament after the 2019 election.
However, electoral rules have been changed for the upcoming election, due on May 14. Under the old rules in 2019, Pheu Thai Party failed to win any party-list MP seats, which were allocated according to votes for constituency-based MP candidates. Pheu Thai won 136 constituency MP seats, and received no party-list MPs in the subsequent calculation.
Meanwhile, Future Forward’s key competitor, the Thai Raksa Chart Party, was banned from the electoral race just before the 2019 vote. Voters who had been considering marking their ballot for Thai Raksa Chart are thought to have switched to Future Forward.
That boost helped the party win 80 seats on its electoral debut, behind only Pheu Thai’s 136 and Palang Pracharath’s 116.
However, at the May 14 election, voters will cast two ballots – one for constituency MPs and another for party list MPs. This new system should benefit Pheu Thai’s bid to increase its number of MPs with the addition of party-list seats.
The House of Representatives has been divided into 400 constituency seats and 100 party-list seats.
Pheu Thai’s carefully designed populist policies may give it another advantage over Move Forward Party at this election.
“Though a few Move Forward candidates look better than Pheu Thai’s, it is not as good at reaching out to constituents,” Olarn said.
He added that former MPs running for Pheu Thai are obviously savvier at wooing voters compared to Move Forward’s candidates.
Strategic positioning
Both Pheu Thai and Move Forward are working hard to impress the new generation, seen as a crucial voting bloc. Both of them have adopted a stance of opposition to Prayut, who has been running Thailand since his 2014 coup.
Both parties support the development of a deeper democracy and have fresh ideas for governing the country. Both also plan to put the controversial lese majeste law, as well as mandatory military conscription, up for public debate. The two opposition parties are also seen as direct representatives of the new generation.
However, when it comes to first-time voters, Move Forward Party appears to have stronger support. Recent surveys show that Move Forward is a favorite among Gen Z voters (18-26 years old). Move Forward MPs have also used their position to secure bail release for young political protesters, likely boosting their appeal among the youth vote.
Move Forward’s liberal ideology, working style and social media presence have really resonated with the young generation. However, it has yet to impress the masses in the same that Pheu Thai can.
Piyabutr, who is helping Move Forward’s campaigning, said voters should realize that every vote cast for the party would count.
“Their votes will show that the Move Forward Party represents new dreams and hopes for Thai politics,” Piyabutr said. “We are different and indispensable. So, please vote for us. If this message gets across, Move Forward will win plenty of votes.”
According to Olarn, Piyabutr believes Move Forward’s day will come as long as it remains a favorite among young voters and upholds the ideologies that make it different.
“If Move Forward does not change, it will definitely achieve big things in the future,” Olarn said. “But I’m not sure if Pita can wait that long.”
The academic pointed out that Pita had already announced that his party could work with Pheu Thai, though the latter is afraid to collaborate out of fear that Move Forward’s progressive policies will hamper its strategies.
Piyabutr said Move Forward is being painted as an ally that is “difficult to deal with”.
“But this image can be good. It can be a selling point, because if you have too many friends, you try to compromise. But the Move Forward Party stands its ground and will bring new hope,” he said.
By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk
